#伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年 Wall Street investment bank Bernstein, in its global storage monthly tracking report released in July, clearly judged that this storage bull market is expected to continue through 2027. What supports this conclusion is AI-driven structural change, not short-term supply-and-demand fluctuations.

Price data itself is speaking. In 2026 Q2, the average DRAM price surged 74% quarter over quarter, with Server DRAM up 60%-67% and Mobile DRAM even nearing 80%. As of June, DRAM chips widely used in PCs and servers have recorded cumulative gains of about 660% year-to-date. But the essence of this bull market is not simply “rising prices”; it is a complete reshaping of demand structure—AI data centers are replacing PCs and smartphones, becoming the core price setter in the storage market.

Three forces are reshaping the industry landscape: first, an AI demand surge. HBM, as a core component of AI accelerators, is projected by UBS to see demand grow 90% year over year in 2026, and then rise another 77% in 2027. Second, supply-side high discipline. After the prior downturn, manufacturers that went through the low point are being extremely cautious about expansion; Micron CEO said supply “will be unable to catch up with demand after calendar 2027.” Third, long-term agreements lock in supply and demand. Mega-cloud providers such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have already locked supply through 2028, along with minimum pricing clauses.

But the market has already shown deep divergence. Bernstein maintains positive ratings for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while staying cautious on Kioxia—HBM capacity is concentrated in the first three, and companies with an excessive share of NAND will be more passive in this AI-driven DRAM cycle. At the same time, weakness in consumer electronics demand has led to a drop in spot prices for NAND wafers; “AI storage” and “consumer storage” are heading toward a complete split.

Bernstein also flags risks: in Q3, DRAM price gains will slow significantly to 13%-18%. In the second half of 2027 through 2028, as new capacity comes online, prices will gradually normalize.

This bull market is not a broad-based rally; it is a comprehensive reshaping of the traditional cycle by AI structural demand. To capture it, it matters more to focus on the leaders in HBM and AI server storage than to bet on the entire sector.