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Big strategy
I hear the scale of quantitative funds has reached 1.8 trillion, and most of that money has to trade in huge volume frequently every day.
That is to say, quantitative funds dominate the market to push the index up and down.
In the early years, what you learned on forums were only traditional methods.
Now, if you don’t understand quant, it’s hard to achieve anything in this market.
To put it simply: yesterday afternoon it kept rallying all the way up, and today afternoon it kept falling all the way down—this is all the work of quant.
From now on, this kind of one-way move will become the norm.
In large-cap stocks, over 85% of the stocks follow the index. The index is dominated by quant.
If the index stays flat and doesn’t rise or fall for the long term, quant can still make money—it’s very good at doing T.
In such an environment, it will hunt and harvest a lot and a lot of retail investors.
I’ll give an example.
A few days ago, I talked about Fenghua 59 follow status—65 unfollow. Its move only stays within this range, because it’s a rebound from oversold, so there’s only that much space.
Next week strategy:
After the index drops again on Monday next week, it will stabilize again. Here, opportunities are greater than risks. I estimate it will be roughly the SSE index pulling back by about 20 to 30 points.
Monday next week, both noon and afternoon are major turning points.
In the technology sector, most stocks don’t form a “main-rally” pattern.
Most of them are hard to move into a main-rally shape again—they’ll become “old guys” stocks.
For example, MNCG, etc.
Stocks that are weak—I’m not looking at those.
Only a very small number of stocks can break out.
In the afternoon, once commercial spaceflight starts—if there are good news headlines, it’s mainly low-position plays that are worth paying attention to.
There are a lot, a lot of stocks that had big bearish candles today, breaking below yesterday’s low points—for example, Zhaoyi, MNCG, Dongshan, BOE, Cambricon, North Huachuang, and BOWEI.
This situation is very bad. These are all high-turnover large-transaction stocks. Breaking yesterday’s low points is extremely damaging to the index.
To be blunt: the capital has dumped these large-cap stocks, but these large-cap stocks affect the index.
Even though Huatian opened the board, I didn’t buy a single share, because this is a passive open-board. At least among large caps, it’s considered relatively strong.
Generally speaking, if you’ve never experienced a stock disaster, you don’t have the nerve and determination—you can’t do high-volatility large-range stocks.
Now, the market is being guided by quant. Many things you learned before aren’t suitable for this kind of market anymore.
Now stock selection pays special attention to fundamentals; emotion-driven stocks are very unstable.
Last night, many people thought Zhaoyi’s earnings were good, so this morning they rushed in with excitement—tragic things happened.
The large capital pushed the board yesterday, because it already knew it would release earnings—it was waiting to harvest the “guys who chase.”
So for stocks whose price charts are in a descending trend, I can’t do this kind of rebound. If I do it wrong, it becomes a big pit. People who chased high this morning—those who chased at around noon—next Monday, during the opening auction, it will be at least down about 2 percentage points.
This shows that large in-market capital is firmly exiting. Any pullback attempts, any rebound attempts—it will leave.
In summary: there are still far too many and too many newbies buying stocks with K-line descending-trend patterns.
For example, Changdian even if it has a big bearish candle today, it didn’t break below the 5-day moving average—so the formation isn’t considered a descending-trend yet.
Next Monday, noon and afternoon—watch whether it can turn around like yesterday noon.
If it turns, then next Tuesday morning is also the follow/unfollow cut-off point.
One more issue: the height of themes and individual stocks is declining, so it won’t get too high.
Because this isn’t a main-rally market.
Try to focus on some low-position names, like CNX Tong, Lan×Ke, and the like.
These all have logic behind them.
This SSE index very likely will resemble the pattern from this year’s March 24 to April 7—multiple rounds of basing and choppy consolidation.
If you can grasp this rhythm, that’s the rhythm quant plays.