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Bitcoin going straight into a bull run from here is interesting.
“Going bull” means the bottom is effective—during the second test, at most it hovers around the prior low,
then it oscillates forward until it breaks the all-time high.
Looking at a larger timeframe on the quarterly K-line,
Bitcoin still has 1 to 40k-lines left to complete bottoming.
Watch the green line: 57,000 has already fallen to the same level as last cycle’s 15,000.
There’s no major macro negative shock,
and the mid-term election can only affect short-term volatility.
Wall Street expects rate hikes in the first half of next year,
and rate cuts in the second half.
Actually, Bitcoin has already fallen a lot, and many bad catalysts have been priced in early.
At most it’s just digesting for two more months—whether it will reach $40k?
I think without a black swan, it’s basically impossible.
At most, the extreme is around $53,000, but it may not even get there.