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The bidirectional toll stations for the 4,000-point mark have arrived.
Today’s collective “name-calling” selloff is a normal pullback after a one-hundred-point bullish long white candle. Even though it’s normal, it’s clearly so dark that it must have been backed by a lot of short-seller force. In fact, other capital probably hasn’t changed that much either. The biggest possibility is that cold, emotionless quantitative robot is pushing things higher into the sky, and then smashing it down to the ground. The 4075 above is the overhead pressure line. The 3985 points below haven’t been reached yet. I guess it will be there as soon as the market opens on Monday. [Taoguba]
The morning trend today is basically still within “normal.” But in the afternoon, dozens of commercial aerospace stocks hit limit-up, which is a bit exaggerated. While rocket recovery is a good thing, if it were truly that remarkable, it wouldn’t be hard to dismiss. Here, if everything could rise to limit-up collectively, then it would be a collective euphoric climax. That would instantly drain the liquidity from the market—no matter what, that cannot happen. This makes me think of the “Taoding law.” When something like this repeats, it still feels a little familiar. But after things go wrong, they don’t refill technology or other sectors—that’s a bit too grim. Are we supposed to all go die together? This time, it looks like the market’s main force is really dark, playing everyone to the end like this. However, even if it drops here, it shouldn’t be a big problem, because what’s destined to happen will still happen. For example, SK hynix getting listed in the US, CXMT (Longxin Storage) getting listed on the A-share market, the robot conference this weekend, and the artificial intelligence conference next week—all of these may come with huge news catalysts.
Especially the AI conference: it very likely brings a major wave of news about technical breakthroughs between AI and robots. As for what exactly the news is, it hasn’t been announced yet, so we’ll have to wait and see. If that news is strong enough—like the revolutionary “hollow-core fiber” breakthrough at the beginning of the year—it could form a possibility for a directional uptrend in the future. This point is very important. Today’s sudden AI surge has some reason behind it.
But for the medical sector—Ebola, which shows up every year—how much impact can it really have, that’s hard to say. Anyway, it comes every year for a wave. If the expectations are strong enough but the follow-through isn’t, then just see how it goes.
Actually, the current swing-cycle market is at a stage with a certain amount of twists and turns. The direction is already there, and the target is already enough. But the twists in the middle are unusually severe. The whole idea is to kill off as many retail investors as possible before the uptrend starts. This has basically become consensus. Because as the pre-disclosure of annual reports increases, the companies that can make money are the ones that are within expectation—those are mainly tech stocks. Everything else is unlikely. Basically, what can be memorized is mainly big tech and brokerages, insurance, and so on. As for other things, wait and see.
Indeed there isn’t much value. So afterward, it’s still tech. If there’s medical, then only some medical sub-sectors will do better. As for how much more is left—well, only fortune-telling can tell. So if tech has no play, then you don’t need to think about anything else; it’s all fake goods. That means the probability of being wrong is extremely high. So here, we still need to stick to technology first.
The recent volatility is a bit large, but classmates shouldn’t let their mindset swing along with the index’s fluctuations. You can handle it by rotating in and out with rolling strategies. But you must not randomly switch to tickers without logical grounding, otherwise it will be a very serious mistake. This kind of mistake very likely will cause everyone’s accounts to suffer a large drawdown in a short time.
This won’t happen here. If it’s not going down, fine. The opportunities in this wave are definitely SK hynix’s listing and CXMT’s listing—these two things are bound to happen. Perhaps here you need to understand the risk grade. The market has also issued certain risk warnings. These risk warnings will become a kind of motive force that’s detached from the market. But after you leave, there may not necessarily be the best target.
For example, the stock I’ve mentioned for a long time: $兆易创新(sh603986)
This kind of psychological pressure is strong enough, but has the logic changed? Of course. When it appeared at 846.66, I said it was past the “order-book language.” That part is known. But the logic here is still that CXMT’s storage listing is happening. The chairman of CXMT is named Zhu Yiming, and the chairman of兆易创新 also is named Zhu Yiming. What’s not strange is that the two chairmen are the same person. Having that alone already proves the logic hasn’t changed. The only change is that the stock has run higher. So after seeing the order-book language, what you can do is trade with your profits. Whether it ends up higher or lower later needs market verification—not because the logic has changed.
After the risk is cleared, only the main force’s free play remains. It can go wherever it wants—we only know that CXMT hasn’t been listed yet. So the logic still exists. Because CXMT’s listing will bring rich equity investment returns to兆易创新, including Zhu Yiming. That’s enough. Other things can just follow how the market performs. The same applies to other tickers: as long as the logic is coherent.
That’s about it for now. Hurry up and like, comment, and give rewards to Cui Bo. It’s another round of催播 (promotion/boosting) cycle—everyone, actively boost it. Thank you to @馨月乾坤@阿苏super@天空飞的地板@空山不见雪@坚持己见各取所需@菁CC@股木天@阿凡提嘚吧嘚@乱浮生@张顺皓@风若能再起@用心炒蛊@leafwmin@排队来一手@冬姐@菁CC@大海浪123 for rewarding and for boosting. Thank you. Come on.
This is this week’s boosting leaderboard. A new boosting leaderboard is here—hope everyone boosts actively.