260710 《Quantitative Thinking: Beyond Expectations》

A-shares plunge! Let’s analyze the reasons:[Taoguba]

First, the ChiNext Board and STAR Market had previously seen consecutive short-term surges, piling up huge realized profit positions. Institutions took the opportunity to cash out at higher levels; risk-off sentiment on the weekend intensified selling pressure.
Second, the positive news of commercial aerospace’s rocket recoveries drew away most of the liquidity.
Related sectors were almost limit-up in the afternoon in batches, with money rushing in crazily. After commercial aerospace kicked off, many popular directions in the ChiNext Board and STAR Market began to weaken in sync.

How do you judge the climax???

Why did I send “a day where I’m an average investor who’s a stock god” yesterday afternoon already, and why is the buy point delayed the day after the climax???

If the sector’s gain exceeds 5%, and the back rows can’t get more than the sector index’s gain on that day, then you can “get s’d” — it means you’re being too passive

But then again, why is the ETF also falling so much, sigh

If you can’t outperform the sector ETF, then you can’t chase today either, because yesterday was the climax;

This is my personal key watchlist from last weekend. I’m numb from losses; average 5-day return: -8.97%

It shows that the tech side is overly concentrated. I thought about it and decided not to respect chip packaging; even so, 588170 also made money, so it’s okay. The thing I hate most is MLCC—my view is bullish, but objectively the funds are exiting.

When Torch Electronics hit the daily limit-down that day, I knew the interim report performance might miss expectations. The core is actually the sell-off in the PCB sector, which directly dragged down the sub-plays.

The fiber-optics sector’s sell-off was beyond expectations. I didn’t expect the core leader in the industry—industry No. 2—Hengtong to kill it all the way.

Hangdian Co. went straight into “A-kill” selling. On Monday I used the collective opening auction to smash the sell button. Sigh, over the weekend I was still thinking: shouldn’t this have two consecutive one-word boards? Ahahahahahahaha

When Monday opened, I said what kind of nonsense was that

Jiangbolong: subjective—like the anvil
Taiji Industry: over there at SK Hynix—either it’s a reduction in holdings, or SK Hynix is falling; black it, black it

Jianghua Micro didn’t break out. The funding in Huaya Intelligent isn’t strong

Youlai Silcon I do like, but I didn’t do it

Youlai New Materials turned 15% points, not bad

Torch Electronics and Aiyawa Group went into A-kill selling

Fenghua Hi-Tech was brought down by MOCON Jichuang and Zhaoji Innovative

Robotics is my fault. What the most front-row and core names did was some nonsense. Black it, black it, black it

Baling Environment, and Changyu Group (the latter) black it. The former was operated by a “zhuang”

The 5-day increase for 20 stocks was fully tracked
I. Individual stock 5-day performance breakdown

1. Yongan Silcon: +34.16%
2. Yongan New Materials: +10.50%
3. Dongshan Precision: +4.11%
4. Baling Environment: +1.56%
5. MOCON Jichuang: -1.97%
6. Esston: -4.44%
7. Jiangbolong: -4.92%
8. Leisai Intelligent: -5.09%
9. Fenghua Hi-Tech: -5.09%
10. Huaya Intelligent: -6.02%
11. Baoding Technology: -7.71%
12. Feilong Optic Fiber: -12.64%
13. Taiji Industry: -15.69%
14. Jianghua Micro: -17.21%
15. Nord Shares: -18.60%
16. Aiyawa Group: -20.26%
17. China Jushi: -21.44%
18. Hangdian Co.: -28.14%
19. Changyu Group: -30.03%
20. Torch Electronics: -30.45%
    II. Overall average data
    Average 5-day return: -8.97%
    The sector’s average pullback over the last five trading days is huge; overall holding returns are clearly negative.

Today’s news backdrop

Interpretation of key broker viewpoints across all tracks
(I) Commercial Aerospace (CITIC Construction Securities)
A 10B rocket recovery was successful. China has become the second country globally to master rocket recovery technology. The core positives are for the satellite, terminal, and tracking-measurement-control (测运控) tracks.

1. Cost logic: Rocket reuse can reduce the per-launch cost by over 60%, addressing the bottleneck in satellite manufacturing and launch capacity, accelerating the rollout of the XW second generation and the G60 satellite scale-up; in 2027, the mobile phone direct-to-satellite industry will enter an implementation stage.
2. Industry progress: Within the year, multiple recoverable rockets such as Blue Arrow Zhuangque-3 and Shenyang Xingyun-1 will carry out tests, speeding up the replication of industry technology.
3. Overseas benchmark to SpaceX: Starlink’s revenue and profits have continued to grow at high rates. In 2026Q1, satellite subscription users exceeded 10B, and mobile direct-to-satellite devices cover 30 countries.
4. Sub-sector focus:

• Satellite manufacturing: laser communication, phased-array antennas;
• Satellite terminals: phone direct-to-satellite hardware;
• Tracking-measurement-control services;
• Rocket supporting systems: 3D printing, special metal materials.
  (II) Innovative Drugs (Tianfeng Medicine)
  In Q2, order-chain business conditions improved. CRO and CDMO performance is expected to exceed expectations: domestic capacity saturation and order prices rebounding; domestic companies accelerating their entry into overseas pharma companies’ supply chains.
  Key targets: Tiguan Pharma, Pharma and Biology, Nanosystem Technology, WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, Prolo Pharmaceutical, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, etc.
  (III) Hog Farming (Guohai Agriculture)
  In June, the disposal speed of stockpiled breeding sows accelerated. Capacity keeps shrinking, and in the medium to long term pork prices have a support logic.
  (IV) Polysilicon
  The regulator has issued industry regulation and control policies. The market supervision bureau, the MIIT, and the NDRC jointly crack down on low-price “glass”/polysilicon industry “price wars”: they set an industry quotation floor; force production cuts for companies engaging in predatory low-price dumping; simultaneously verify companies’ energy consumption, taxes, and production/sales data; enforcement results are set to land by the end of July. In the wet season, companies’ hedging inventory scales are large, and there are variables in forward supply.
  (V) Optical Communication Track
  After two consecutive weeks of adjustment, it’s entering a setup window. Focus on three sub-sectors: optical modules, optical chips, and optical fiber:

1. Optical modules: Head companies’ order outlook remains strong next year. Targets: MOCON Jichuang, Dongshan Precision, NewEast Sheng, Huagong Technology;
2. Optical chips: Supply is tight; price hikes are possible in mid-year;
3. Optical fiber: Centralized procurement prices rise significantly. Overseas manufacturers also raise prices. Optical rod production capacity has triple barriers: environmental impact assessment, equipment, and germanium material. In the next three years, the industry demand gap is 15%-30%; the deployment of 8192 super-node servers in H2 2026 will further boost optical fiber demand.

So I’ll post more knowledge points from now on, make a fortune

[font=-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, quot]Joke: The sector rotation is like a single pair of pants being worn one after another[/font]
(1) It’s really hard—what is “light”? “Light” is already hard when you’re just alive. What is “saving”? You can’t save any profit. What is “profit”? It’s being cut by you that kills me. (2) China’s A-share investors are taking a “2026 July Exam Vol. 1.” Now, the most I’m sorry to myself for is still _____. 2. Refund me; I won’t play anymore. I’m _. 3. Is it still too late to ____ now? 4. Ah— is here! 5. Stop ____; I need to support ____. 6. ____ is an outsider; he doesn’t even understand AI… 7. Now I remember it all. I’m not ____; I’m not ____; I’m not ____; I’m ____! 8. So much ____; instead _____. 9. In the village there’s only one pair of pants; today they got worn by _____. 10. Time will prove _____. (3) Congratulations to Chang Zhen Yi (长十乙) for successfully achieving “net-system recovery”! And congrats to A-shares for successfully achieving “net-system recovery” of the funds in my account! (4) Now I remember it all. I’m not the Wolf of Wall Street. I’m not a messenger of light. I’m not the successor of chips. I’m not the king of storage, and I’m not an astronaut. I’m a delivery rider! (5) Now A-shares are like a poor household. There are five siblings, but only one pair of pants. Whoever goes out wears it. Today optical modules wear the pants; tomorrow innovative drugs wear them; the day after storage wears them—but each time only one person can wear it. When one person wears them, the others have to sit at home naked. The worst is being naked for months. You don’t get to wear them! Today the pants are worn by commercial aerospace. (6) No one told me either that for rocket recovery, I also need to pay my share of money. Thanks for your support; make a fortune
@牛而比之@永抓大牛@Lunhyra@炒股买车OoO@夏野无殇@丁蟹狂徒@lskyy@88kkl@Chee3e@ningnnnnn@一只落水狗@摩多@G化茧成蝶@流沙2026@底部悟道@清风LL@哈基米欧也@楚凤歌@韩立修仙传@会飞的母牛@八爪苗苗鱼@我的十年之约@peter攀@打败恶龙@八转鸿运齐天蛊@那只黑鸦@山水80@123巳@濤有在努力减肥鸭@mzxzz@韩三万@新生的芽@lion77@汤加三勺@Rj5313@冰川688@那个马小小@灼灼335@yyxxl@twicefs@不漂亮的翡石头@股手AAAA@不见长安秋@漫漫ym@哈基米欧@单刀直入刀上红色匝岸@绝地挣米@王诗允@吉星高照123456@001武@思绪走了光8@方展博来啦@太阳一样@258A@紫靓@暗裔剑魔亚托克斯@理论支撑战胜情绪@子虚无有@永不休止的奋斗@炒股别做设计@郑杰@QwertyuiopF@小cute@沉不冒@橘子2026@王jun@JKqwe@失眠的床@林双双二@画家梓豪@布丁牛@晴天已注册@零距离666@蒋十七@肖家一耙@lily787501@辞别春山晚晚@梦想猪猪侠@项闯@匝岸@走走停停该怎么走@锤柠檬茶的韭菜@Deal16@黄叶便碎落213@lily787501@小张多喝水@张利强@哆来b梦@失眠的床@应丞钰8619@peter攀@唔昂王m@韩立修仙传@一只落水狗@comeonmoney@酸溜溜的富贵花@爱唱歌的兔兔@TtH长@Renaa@扣肉kk@回本iam股@SakurajiMaYi@红红合众人@我悟道了吗@愿乐欲闻@我不是阳明@哆来b梦@爱旅游的CC@258A@lion77@G化茧成蝶@ccl半路炒股@悠米七喜
@十八线柚子悟道录
@風止意難平@八爪苗苗鱼 @趋势88

The list isn’t in any particular order. All friends who have tipped in the past are included here. Grateful for everyone’s support—let’s all make a fortune together!

Wishing you all that your accounts will rise steadily, with net value setting new highs month after month!

Friendly reminder: This article is for discussion and reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. All trading profits and losses are borne by me personally.

Finally, hit like—make a fortune!

It’s been a long time since I updated the blacklist. So let’s update it: it means I’m bad at this. For me, the experience is bad—I don’t like unfollowing, so no need to.

Family precepts (A direct reflection of the US stock surge—be careful about chasing highs in A-shares)

Retail investors chasing “catch-up gains” use the certainty of the leader, replacing it with the uncertainty of the catch-up play. It looks like low risk, but it’s actually high volatility—easy to “make small profits and lose big money.”

Thought process before buying:

Before a low-buy: if it doesn’t rise after you buy, or even hits the daily limit-down, how do you get out tomorrow?

Before a mid-break purchase: is it proactively getting stronger, or passively following the sector up? When you enter on the mid-break, how bad can its loss be that you can accept? After it hits the daily limit-up, how much does it drive the sector, and what is its position in the sector?

Before buying at the limit-up: after hitting limit-up, can it become the leader?

1. On days just before holidays, it’s best to be mostly in cash (around 30% or less). (External uncertainties exist.)

2. Never accept a one-word board—never accept a one-word board!

Only accept at the close, one or two layers—absolutely no playing one-word boards. Even if the logic is hard, you can’t take a one-word board!!! (The profit-taking chips on a one-word board are too thick.)

3. In your mind, no “expectation gathering at the opening auction sell”—no fantasies!!! (Especially for random orders.)

4. If the broader market drops sharply—especially Nasdaq down more than 1.5%—then place the opening auction sell; (depends on the situation)

5. If the sentiment side has more than 10 limit-down stocks that day: only sell, not buy!!! (Keep sell rights)

6. With position sizing: within 50% if the volume is under 2w hundred million (2w亿)!!! (Very important, very important, very important, very important, very important)

7. If there’s underlying logic and fundamentals aren’t broken, don’t leave unless it breaks the 10-day line!!! With underlying logic and fundamentals not broken, don’t leave unless it breaks the 10-day line!!! Especially the core on the price-hike side—pay extra attention!!!

8. Stocks in the blacklist: don’t watch, don’t buy, don’t add to watchlist.

9. Cut the core when strong; when weak cut the “grouped” ones; when in doubt, go with the overall market leader.

10. If it fails the limit-up, can you accept the loss, and what will your next day’s low-open expectation be?

Normally when I do a stock, I consider things like: the theme it belongs to, its stock behavior, its price, its market cap, including its chip structure, its chart form. Plus the participating funds—whether it’s the strongest, its recognizability, initiative, aggressiveness, and its impact on the market. And finally position control.

11. During market rotation phases, it’s about low-buys in each sector’s core—hot stocks that have logic and are recognized by funds, especially those with clear logic and underlying logic.

Here are stocks that have already entered my blacklist. These are stocks I can’t make money from. It only shows that I’m too inexperienced. No offense—just unfollow if you don’t like it!

Blacklist
Shandong Molong (key blacklist)
Tianshun Wind Power (key blacklist)
Qunxing Toys (A-kill—structurally bad)
Huanrui Century (key blacklist)
Zhaochi Shares (key blacklist)
Dawei Technology (not core this round)
Data Port X (no consecutive wins)—key blacklist
Guofeng New Materials (key blacklist)
China Nuclear Engineering & Construction (key blacklist)
Fenghua Hi-Tech (key blacklist, sigh—still, you were good)
China Electric Nanzi (blacklisted blacklisted)
Sunna Shares have bad “bone” (permanent blacklist)
Gongshan Energy Tech does tons of T, poor fund attributes
China Energy Saving Wind Power can’t chase—hard when entering intraday

Desheng Power fundamental—funds don’t recognize; key blacklist
Zhongli Group belongs to quant trading—everyone’s domain
Xinnengtai is quant’s domain
Jinkai Xinneng, you useless thing
Shuhua Sports—bad “bone”…
Dongnan can only be bought green candles—only when it’s pulled down to the bottom can you buy B
Nanjing Pharma blacklisted—lost nearly 20 percentage points because of it
Huadian Energy blacklisted blacklisted (it’s my fault)
NetShrink Technology blacklisted blacklisted—permanent blacklist
Great Wall Motor blacklisted blacklisted—poor fund attributes
Kaisen Technology blacklisted—too low a premium
Luxshare Precision blacklisted blacklisted—poor fund attributes
Shandong Glass Fiber—I can’t outplay it; so many quants
Taihe New Materials—why does it press down into deep water and then rally like that…
Runjian Shares has garbage stock behavior—no way to describe it
Saiteng Shares blacklisted blacklisted—most disgusting semiconductor equipment; I’m just bad at this
Kangqiang Electronics—really good at washing the盤; speechless, although I didn’t buy
Taijing Technology blacklisted—blacklisted
Zhaisheng Technology blacklisted blacklisted—direct blacklisted; disgusting; it went A-kill after being on CCTV
Quartzui Co. also blacklisted—not good stuff; disgusting
Rongjie Co. not lithium mine? Blacklist it, blacklisted blacklisted
Kecheng Intelligent—disgusting to the point of nausea
Longpan Technology also blacklisted—too many “battery small essay” stories; although I didn’t buy
Jiangxi tungsten equipment—forget it, it was still profitable; but it went A-kill, so Taiji Industry is blacklisted. It’s either reduction in holdings or SK Hynix’s decline

Only these are the newly blacklisted recently. If there are more added, it just means I’m not suited to play the above;

All 23 stocks’ 5-day return average: -8.45%