Where is the BTC bottom? Three institutions, three different conclusions—I’m honestly stunned.

Glassnode says it’s still in the late stage of bottoming: long-term holders are realizing a loss of $280 million per day (the highest since the 2022 FTX collapse), and the panic-selling exit hasn’t finished yet!

CryptoQuant directly pours cold water: this is just a bear-market rally—dead cat bounce, not a reversal!

Bitwise’s optimistic camp: this is the most mild bear market ever, with the high only down 50%. In the past it was always a drawdown by half again and again—each bottom cycle is higher than the last, and institutions are aggressively buying at low levels!

Using the same on-chain data, these three institutions still manage to tell three completely opposite storylines.

Personally, I think: these institutions aren’t analyzing the market—they’re just telling different pools of capital different stories.
Ordinary people get misled by these reports to buy at high prices and cut at low prices, and in the end, the ones who always bleed are retail investors. Now panic is maxed out, and the data can be interpreted however they want—this grinding-out bottom may be even more painful than you’d imagine.

$BTC Right now it’s hovering around 60k. Which one do you believe—or do you just look at your own position?

I’m bearish long-term; I see the bottom at 30 to 40 thousand (Carpenter’s theory).