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July 10 recap: Perfectly predicted today’s spike and reversal—why?
I am 青锋猎手. Follow me, and I will take you to feel the most real market board from a linked perspective, and do the most sincere review.[TaoGuba]
I perfectly predicted yesterday’s intraday surge and subsequent fade today; the only key is that I found the market’s “linkage.”
Yesterday’s plan:
Semiconductors, the main theme sector. Today saw a strong rebound, far beyond expectations. Tomorrow there are two scenarios: ① Today has already reached its peak, so tomorrow’s opening will create divergence; ② Tomorrow continues today’s strength, and divergence will form intraday. Tomorrow is expected to pick the strong side amid the split and disagreement. There will be stocks that use today’s strong rebound node, break out through the divergence. At that point, we’ll see whether it’s possible to participate. And it’s still the same line: don’t blindly chase highs in tomorrow’s early trading session. Trade plan: gradually reduce positions in ETFs.
Today’s trades:
“After-the-fact perfect trade”: none.
The market is a precise web of logic; behind every irrationality there is a reasonable explanation—through “linkage.” Reviewing the chart is like “solving a case,” aiming to find that “source point” that moves the whole body from a complex board.
See the small in order to know the big—watch with linkage.
From the perspective of “linkage,” see through the market’s fog.
The market has no coincidence—only linkage that everyone ignores.
In my world, the market is a precise web of logic.
Behind every “irrational” thing, there is a reasonable explanation hidden.
This explanation is called linkage.
In my articles, you’ll rarely see ambiguous guessing.
I’m not doing trading—I’m solving a case!
My original intention is simple: let more people take fewer detours. Don’t jump into the market and get trapped in watching individual stocks rise and fall. As for theme news, my goal is to immerse with everyone in a full, end-to-end walkthrough—from how the opening auction sets the tone, how we wrestle in the intraday session, to how we close the power at the end of the day. Clear the linkage chain one by one.
A ten-thousand-character long article takes a lot of energy and effort—if it’s useful, please don’t be stingy in liking and giving rewards. Your support is my greatest encouragement.
Part 1: Brilliant recap
Verify yesterday’s projection and correct cognitive bias. The market is the only teacher. Use today’s objective price action as the anchor, and reflect on yesterday’s subjective forecast.
1. Yesterday’s whole-market recap
Yesterday’s indexes: Shanghai Composite Index +1.65%, Shenzhen Component +3.07%, ChiNext +4.99%, STAR 50 Composite +6.67%.
Yesterday’s sentiment: 2,381 stocks closed green (on the day before: 1,531), 2,672 declined. Market turnover/volume 2.91 trillion RMB (day before: 2.56 trillion RMB).
Yesterday’s limit-up: Semiconductor: 18 limit-ups; ChangXin Tech: 13; AI hardware: 5; robots: 5; pharma: 2. Total limit-ups: 75. Stocks that hit limit-up then opened (炸板): 17. Downward limit (跌停): 12.
Yesterday’s market: After two days earlier the market shook and repaired, the afternoon saw a plunge (Korean stocks’ midday circuit breaker). Semiconductors closed red against the trend. Yesterday’s market opened higher then faded, but in the afternoon a strong rally came and it fully “engulfed” back—comprehensive bullish engulfing.
Semiconductors: The ChangXin Storage IPO news exploded. The semiconductor sector opened strong in the morning, then pulled back as the Korea index fell; afterwards it rebounded, separating from the Korea index. In the afternoon it surged violently and strongly repaired. Semiconductor materials sector rose 9.73%.
PCB (communications): Dongshan Precision traded sideways in the morning, then saw a strong limit-up in the afternoon, driving repair across the entire communications sector. Component sector closed up 4.39%.
Humanoid robots: Esston gapped down then closed limit-downward at -5.83%. Theme rotation continued with new limit-ups. The humanoid robot sector index dropped to -2.66% intraday then surged back to close up 1.16%.
Pharma: Hainan Haiya gapped up then closed limit-down at -9.21%, and two new low-position first-board limit-ups emerged. The chemical/pharmaceuticals sector index closed -0.42%.
Yesterday’s leading directions: Semiconductor materials 9.73%, IC packaging/testing 9.49%, semiconductor equipment 7.86%, semiconductor sector index 6.52%.
Yesterday’s lagging directions: Comprehensive agriculture -4.26%, lithium -3.72%, natural scenic spots -3.07%, energy metals -2.57%.
2. Theme backtracking (verified by yesterday’s projection): A full-path review of the strong theme. My original 5-day theme review table—take you back from the start to recall the overall rhythm.
This is the real thing I keep in my bottom drawer, worth its weight in gold. I’m bringing it out to share with everyone; please savor it carefully.
If you can read this table, you’re not far from悟道 (enlightenment of market).
If you want to see the market rhythm sooner and read the big picture, come with me—record this table, review that day’s record, compare it with what I record the next day, and optimize.
(5-day theme rhythm table)
Semiconductor direction: (last Tuesday) sector index surged violently (多氟多 hit 2 boards), (last Wednesday) continued up then surged and pulled back (多氟多 hit 3 boards, 太极实业 re-board), (last Thursday) gapped down and continued divergence, with comprehensive panic selling (多氟多**-0.78%**, 太极实业 hit limit-down), (last Friday) divergence continued with a turnover repair, but the strength was weaker (多氟多 hit limit-down, 天山电子 first-board limit-up). (this Monday), the gap-up was followed by兑现, then it lacked resistance and slid all the way down (概伦电子 limit-up). The semiconductor sector index saw 4 consecutive days of declines. (this Tuesday) fought the decline and repaired weakly in an uptrend reverse (有研硅 re-board limit-up, 华天科技 limit-up), (this Wednesday) oscillation repair without limit-ups, while 东岳硅材 trended stronger, (this Thursday) traded sideways in the morning then strongly repaired in the afternoon; many previously recognizable stocks batch re-board limit-ups.
Look at today (Friday): there are two cases—① the auction itself creates divergence; after a low open and selling pressure, it then oscillates and repairs; ② it continues yesterday’s rally and then again surges and pulls back. Remember: don’t easily chase highs early in the session.
Robots: (last Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday) three consecutive days of rotation and explosive moves; (last Friday) triggered quantitative mechanisms and the explosion turned into strength—intraday peaked and was consistent.
(This Monday) 埃斯顿 surged up then pulled back; (this Tuesday) two-polar differentiation—埃斯顿 exceeded expectations with a strong sideways shock; (this Wednesday) rotation continued—埃斯顿 opened low and hit limit-down, while 大恒科技 surged with volume and hit 3 boards; (this Thursday) robots continued divergence then repaired, but no trading plan (hard mode). Look at today (Friday): it’s expected to continue divergence then repair (opposite to semiconductors’ surge-and-pullback).
Pharma direction: Starts one day earlier than robots. (this Thursday) the rhythm is the same; after divergence continues, there is a weak repair. Look at today (Friday) and the opposite “seesaw” effect with semiconductors—expected to continue divergence then repair.
Overall characterization: In the auction, watch the semiconductor direction. Are there any “one-word” limit-up stocks (一字) making a statement? If yes, semiconductors are expected to first continue yesterday’s upward move then pull back, while all non-semiconductors and communications are expected to repair along with semiconductors’ pullback.
3. Yesterday’s core stocks
Strongest yesterday:
Semiconductors: front-row stocks: 天山电子, 上海合晶, 同兴达, 深科达, 有研硅, 东岳硅材 (trend-style play); middle players: 兆易创新, 深科技, 长电科技.
Communications (PCB): 东山精密, 宝鼎科技.
Robots: negative feedback (former core): 埃斯顿 (gapper-than-down then limit-down).
Pharma: negative feedback (former core): 海南海药 (gap-down then limit-down).
(These two lines are the second most important things in the whole article. If you can’t understand the truly strongest theme leader, and don’t know what to anchor, then your trading will get distorted.)
The market is actually simple: it’s either up or down. If it goes up too much, it will go down; if it goes down too much, it will go up. That’s basically the only two lines.
And guidance for our trading: don’t chase upside after upside accelerates; don’t buy into downside after downside accelerates. Buy at the time when an upmove starts; buy at the time when divergence exhausts.
The current market is relatively difficult. The rhythm is hard to grasp. Theme rotation within themes and between themes leads to weak continuity. For those who can’t read the rhythm, they immerse every day in chasing and killing; once they make a mistake, it’s easy to get hit on both sides.
People who can truly earn stably borrow the market’s trend, but what they truly make money from is rhythm, not a whole bull-market explosion. If you make money by luck, you’ll still lose it back eventually by real ability.
Part 2: Decryption of today
Through linkage details on the board, restore the full “holographic battle map” of market capital.
1. 9:00-9:15
Pre-market thinking: adjust A-share pre-market expectations based on changes in overseas markets—the performance of US stocks last night and Korean stocks this morning.
Overseas linkage:
Note: (The recent market is greatly affected by overseas. I’m keeping these lines for new friends to understand the rules.)
U.S. stock market is 9:20 to 16:30 local time; converted to Beijing time that is 21:30 to 4:30.
Korean stock market is 9:00 to 15:30 local time; converted to Beijing time that is 8:00 to 14:30, meaning Korean stocks open 1.25h earlier than A-shares.
Why has A-share been so affected by the Korea index recently?
Pre-market thinking: There are two big pieces of information to collect: the performance of US stocks and Korean stocks. After US stocks had opened lower and stabilized the day before yesterday, yesterday they opened higher and closed with a positive candle. In the sector performance ranking of the upside moves, there were 4 key items: ① Monkeypox concept (pharma-related) up 11.00%, ② Silver (metals) up 6.43%, ③ Solid-state disk (storage) up 6.14%, semiconductor up 4.51%, ④ Integrated circuits up 3.80%. From this, think about whether A-share related concepts will have a linkage reaction. If it does, be able to respond calmly.
And for the Korean index: since yesterday afternoon, A-shares had already “de-sensitized” to it. Note: I’ve been talking about the overall trend and rhythm. When you see the Korea index gap up and even didn’t pull back like yesterday, that’s a good thing—but don’t get excited, don’t get carried away. A-share semiconductors have their own rhythm. After yesterday’s violent surge, today they must release profit-taking. So in A-share’s early-session surge, don’t rush; after going through one round of兑现, then once you see the board clearly, make your move.
Today’s verification: Auction gap change: Shanghai, Shenzhen, ChiNext, STAR 50 composite respectively -0.13%, 0.53%, 0.59%, -0.06%.
2. 09:15 - 10:00
Time to set the tone: auction decides life-or-death; the open decides the direction
(1) One-word board analysis:
We do a qualitative analysis of one-word boards from the last two days.
Huatian Technology: One-word 29.1k limit-up order. Advanced packaging concept (related to Huawei τ law). It stopped falling and stabilized first on Tuesday. After a strong re-board yesterday, today a large order locked a one-word limit-up. Injecting strong confidence for semiconductor repair.
Gao De Hong Yuan: One-word 740 million limit-up order. Interim report performance growth. (has infrared chip concept). Sanyuan Communications also has performance growth.
Dalian Dianci, Fuchun Environmental Protection, Kelu Electronic: all are power-related concepts. Dalian Dianci has a 200 million one-word limit-up lock; the other two opened at their limit-up price without lock orders.
Hengshang Energy Saving: On Wednesday, one-word exploded volume and hit a limit-up with turnover. On Thursday, it opened higher with reduced volume and instantly went to the board to complete “weak-to-strong” qualification and advanced to 8 boards. Today opened at the limit-up price, becoming board number 9. It’s an announcement board (acquiring a semiconductor company), which has no obvious driving effect for the storage sector, but it has already become the only stock in the market in recent period to reach the height of a 9th consecutive limit-up. Whether it can hold the board today is extremely important. Even if it breaks the board, the height has already opened; as long as it gives funds inside a respectable chance to exit, that’s enough.
(2) Auction identification trap analysis:
If you understand this chart, you understand the attitude of auction-time capital!
Semiconductors:
→ Phenomenon: With the Korea stock market gapping up and stabilizing, the semiconductor index’s auction-up percentage was only 0.37%, which is under expectation. Among them, Huatian Technology got a large one-word limit-up that was beyond expectations; yesterday’s lead big brother Tianshan Electronics had auction only 1.79%; Youyan Silicon opened low at -2.72%; Shen Technology****6.74%; Changdian Technology****5.18%. But Shanghai Heijing and Shen Keda both opened higher by above 9% (the earliest limit-up stock yesterday), which matches expectations.
→ Cause: US tech stocks surged; Korea index gapped up 3.31%; plus the ChangXin Storage IPO news. Overall, characterization is auction divergence. Not gapping up too much is actually good (it provides space for fund games). If it gaps up across the board strongly, then it will come with a wave of strong兑现.
→ Trading conclusion: Yesterday’s plan—don’t chase easily; watch out for a surge-and-pullback. Don’t blindly be carried away into being the “late buyer” after a yesterday-strong repair.
Communications (PCB):
→ Phenomenon: Yizhongtian opened high early. Dongshan Precision and Shennan Circuit opened red.
→ Cause: Continuation of yesterday’s big rally inertia.
→ Trading conclusion: The mainstream is Big Tech, while communications is the small brother of semiconductors. Its rebound/repair overall is weaker than semiconductors. So we should lead with semiconductors. Holders of cash (持币者) prioritize semiconductor trading opportunities; holders of positions (持筹者) sell at relatively higher points.
Robots and pharma:
→ Phenomenon: Esston and Hainan Haiya, which had gap-down and limit-down yesterday, saw auction divergence again today; both opened low at -2.84% and -3.17% respectively.
But in pharma, Haya Pharmaceutical had auction-up of 8.82% (even though it’s an interim report profit increase, it’s not a one-word board; interpret as market behavior). That gives some support to pharma direction.
→ Cause: Overall it continues yesterday’s divergence. But in pharma, yesterday US stocks had a stimulus reaction (monkeypox concept). Don’t make subjective assumptions; if A-shares show a reaction intraday, just know there is some connection.
→ Trading conclusion: Be patient and wait. Once you understand semiconductors are showing weakness and pulling back, then consider whether to go in on dips for the core of these two directions.
(3) Intraday linkage:
1. Hengshang Energy Saving limit-up and second-seconds board → Market sentiment warms **
→ Phenomenon: Hengshang Energy Saving opened at the limit-up price and hit the limit-up on a T-like instant board. The linkage further warmed market sentiment, with more than 4,000 stocks closing red.
→ Cause: Hengshang Energy Saving hitting limit-up today is its 9th consecutive board. The market’s height suppression has lasted for 2 months. Its re-close (回封), became the precursor that awakened market sentiment.
→ Conclusion: If it can hold the board today, or if no major negative feedback appears, that is an outperformance. Get prepared—will the market style change? Can the “relay” wave produce a profit effect? Don’t pre-judge—just be ready to follow.
2. Tongxingda opens high then dives → Semiconductors兑现 at the open**
**
→ Phenomenon:** Tongxingda led with yesterday’s limit-up; its auction up percentage was 8.91%. But at the open it jumped and sold off sharply. It linked with Youyan Silicon, whose auction opened low at -2.72%, and it sold down to -6.85%.
→ Cause: Semiconductors’ repair achieved consensus during the day yesterday. Today’s gap-up Tongxingda and yesterday’s rotten-board re-close Youyan Silicon—represented by these, they were the first to be兑现.
→ Conclusion: It matches normal expectations: a wave of兑现 at the open. Don’t rush into chasing highs in a hurry (for example, buying Tongxingda in the auction today if you can’t read the situation).
3. Shenkeda limit-up → Youyan Silicon pulls down but still turns red; localized inflow returns for semiconductors
**
→ Phenomenon:** Shenkeda had auction up 9.92%. It quickly surged after the open. It linked with Youyan Silicon: after dipping to probe, it immediately turned red.
→ Cause: Funds attempted to separate and strengthen a newly started stock.
→ Conclusion: Trading difficulty is high. Like Shanghai Heijing—it briefly hit a limit-up then broke the board and fell back.
3. 10:00 - 11:30
Moment of game: real gold and silver tests the metal
1. Shen Technology breaks the board → Semiconductors shift back to divergence**
**
→ Phenomenon:** Shen Technology opened high then hit limit-up, broke the board, and the linkage saw the semiconductor index fall back.
→ Cause: The “late-arriving” funds today entered and tried to game that semiconductor theme would strengthen again, but multiple times the profit-taking from yesterday’s buyers got兑现, unable to form a unified force for another rise.
→ Conclusion: The semiconductor sector index formed a “double-top intraday” and couldn’t break upward again; further pullback is expected.
2. Semiconductors pull back → Non-tech funds flow back**
**
→ Phenomenon:** The semiconductor sector index pulled back. Linked, Hainan Haiya rose in oscillation, approaching limit-up. In addition, power, metals, robots, and AI applications all returned comprehensively, creating a clear seesaw effect against semiconductors.
→ Cause: A comprehensive explosion in themes means the board started to get chaotic. The consensus for semiconductor repair collapsed. Funds dispersed out of semiconductors, and other directions had been suppressed by semiconductors for too long. The divergence in semiconductors caused market sentiment to be sluggish; those old themes stayed dormant. Since yesterday sentiment warmed, today when semiconductors diverge, they finally got their chance.
→ Conclusion: If your skill is high enough, you can see semiconductors’ lack of follow-through early and then dip-buy to participate in earlier recognizable names like Hainan Haiya. But lately, if you can’t buy at very low levels, the difficulty is extremely high. Compared with semiconductors, other themes have even less continuity. Personally, I choose to give up and patiently wait for the real opportunity. Low risk, high potential return. It’s like buying ETFs on dips on Monday—by today’s early-session highs, it still easily reaches 20%.
4. 13:00 - 15:00
Confirmation / turning point: the verdict is in; close sets the tone
In the afternoon, the Korean stock market gapped up and continued to strengthen. The index surged 5.50%, triggering a pause mechanism for programmed buying. Today’s market became desensitized to changes in the Korean index, with no linkage reaction at all.
Additionally, another piece of news: at the open it ignited the market—commercial aerospace rocket recovery was successful.
1. China Satellite hits straight limit-up → Commercial aerospace explodes with 50 limit-ups
But the afternoon situation needs to be emphasized.
5. Board summary
Indexes: Shanghai Composite closed at -1.00%, Shenzhen Component -2.29%, ChiNext -4.37%, STAR 50 Composite -4.50%.
Sentiment: 3,509 stocks closed red (1,612 green? actually “green board” here means closed green?—as written: 1612 green-board stocks), market turnover 3.38 trillion RMB (yesterday 2.91 trillion RMB).
Theme performance: Space/astronautics equipment 9.49%, medical R&D outsourcing 7.28%, vaccines 4.37%, advertising/marketing 3.93%.
Integrated circuit manufacturing -8.41%, semiconductor equipment -7.58%, semiconductor materials -5.93%, electronic chemicals -5.92%.
Limit-ups: Commercial aerospace had 25 limit-ups, pharma 9, robots 8, semiconductor 7. Today total limit-ups 90, break-boards 91, down limit 4.
Putting these linkage data together clearly tells us that today, after a brief continuation of yesterday’s rise, big tech fully surged then pulled back; multiple themes rotated, making the board chaotic. In the afternoon, commercial aerospace exploded, accelerating the big-tech collapse.
Adding one more thing today: Hengshang Energy Saving touched 9 consecutive boards (the last one was Huadian Liaoneng). Hope it can finish well tomorrow. Then the style might change.
6. Trading “solve the case”
Convert the board logic into specific, actionable trading rules or modes for reflection.
(1) Today’s best solution:
1. Semiconductor ETF (clear plan yesterday)
Conclusion: In yesterday’s plan, it said to sell at the early-session surge. Fully clear everything—don’t take it back.
Logic: Very simple. Yesterday’s semiconductor repair reached the peak (盛极). So who will come to take it today? In the auction, there was no major upside surprise. Even high-recognition names like Youyan Silicon were opened under water. So after yesterday’s inertia upward, it would inevitably first兑现 then pull back.
(2) Identification traps:
1. Don’t chase early-session highs in any big-tech-related stocks, and don’t do the so-called “T trade.”
Logic: There were 197 stocks that saw a large pullback today—tragic to the extreme. Early in the session, their own internal rhythm saw a surge and pullback; in the afternoon, commercial aerospace exploded, with strong accumulation effect. Big tech pulled back across the board; in the afternoon it triggered panic and a comprehensive breakdown.
Part 3: Tomorrow’s projection
1. Core theme rhythm projection:
1. Leading board (semiconductors): During the leading rise process, after a round of fierce divergence, it repaired for 3 consecutive days. Yesterday’s repair reached the peak. Today it surged and then pulled back with a large-scale retreat. The semiconductor equipment sector index closed at -7.76%.
2. Rotation boards (robots, pharma): Both have 9 limit-ups. Esston and Hainan Haiya opened low then rallied strongly, closing up 3.01% and 4.65% respectively. The robot and pharma sector indices were 0.38% and 3.03%.
3. Rotation boards (commercial aerospace): In the afternoon, there was an explosive limit-up wave, but the break-board count was more than half. It triggered a quantitative mechanism. At this stage it’s characterized as a one-day trade. Satellite communications sector index was 4.60%.
2. Today’s takeaways:
How did I predict yesterday that today would surge and then pull back?
This article today is worth a fortune. If you understand it, it can help you avoid a lot of unnecessary losses and drawdowns. Very few people are willing to say it out loud. I don’t want to do something like “how many likes” or “how many boost tokens,” and then release the answer. Being sincere: I show you my bottom card, I bring out my sincerity. I hope to exchange real heart with real heart. If you reading up to here feels that these words truly touch your thinking, help me by giving boost tokens and making it to a featured post. Thank you everyone.
3. Tomorrow’s response plan:
Semiconductors (communications) surge and pull back; in the afternoon commercial aerospace explodes, aggravating big tech’s decline. The result triggers panic and a stampede effect, so the indexes keep falling. Break-board rate is above 50%. Big tech is expected to continue divergence tomorrow, then turn into repair again. (If it’s strong, or if there’s weekend news stimulus, it may directly repair, but the力度 will be far weaker than Thursday’s repair.) It’s not suitable to act rashly or blindly chase after rallies.
The market enters a chaos phase. Commercial aerospace is expected to be a one-day trade (overall theme is oversold rebound).
** Be careful against systemic market risk. Sentiment has been continuously sluggish, and the index may continue to fall below previous levels. Of course it’s not something we can judge in just one day tomorrow. At that time, pay attention to whether the “consecutive-board relay” style returns.**
This paragraph was written yesterday. It is extremely important, and not a single character is changed. Bring it out for review.【Semiconductors, main theme sector, today saw a strong repair far beyond expectations. Tomorrow there are two scenarios: ① Today is already at peak; tomorrow’s auction will create divergence; ② Tomorrow continues today’s strength and divergence will switch on intraday. Tomorrow is expected to choose the strong amid differentiation and divergence. There will be stocks that use today’s strong repair node to go out of divergence. Then we’ll see whether it’s possible to participate; still the same—don’t blindly chase highs in tomorrow’s early session. Trade plan: gradually reduce positions in ETFs.】
Today I only have one request: for the past few days, I did full, continuous reviews, with strict plans, rigorous logic, clear thinking, and accurate judgment. If there are friends who benefited from my articles, please help me by pushing this article today with boost tokens so we can reach a featured post.
Writing the recap takes a lot of effort.
From the auction to the close, every minute’s fluctuations and every surge and plunge—behind it is real money and real effort in the game. What I can do is, to the best of my ability, break down for you bit by bit the veins of fund flows, the logic of linkage, and the truths of the board.
While writing, I’m also thinking and improving, so we move forward together.
If you feel this article helps you, follow me. If you have the means, brothers, please support with a reward and share your heart. I’m taking and receiving this. This road is not easy. The more fellow travelers there are, the more happy I feel.
Thank you to every single person who finished reading. See you in the comment section.