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Opinion: The AI investment cycle has entered “extra time,” and four indicators can warn of a capital expenditure bubble
BlockBeats news, July 10: BCA Research investment strategist said that the current AI investment cycle has entered “extra time.” The AI bubble is reflected more in the earnings side than in the valuation side. Profit growth, the pressure brought by demand structure, and the pressure from supply expansion may become concentrated around 2027, when the growth rate of AI capital expenditures may slow noticeably.
Investors may focus on four key bubble warning indicators: GPU rental prices, the price of AI storage chips, the adoption rate of AI applications and enterprise spending, and the token price and the download volume of AI programming agents. Among them, the token price falling and AI programming tool downloads trending toward stagnation are the earliest signals worth paying the most attention to, reflecting that enterprises are gradually shifting from chasing the most advanced models to cost control.
If the AI bubble ultimately bursts, its impact on the US economy and capital markets could exceed the 2000 internet bubble. Based on estimates, the US stock market could then see a 30% to 50% pullback, and it would also drag down US consumption and economic growth through the wealth effect.