#世界杯冠军预测 As of July 10, 2026, the 2026 USA–Canada–Mexico World Cup has not yet produced a final champion, and the final will be held at the New York/New Jersey Stadium on July 20, Beijing time.

Current tournament progress

France defeated Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals to become the first team to advance to the semifinals; the remaining three quarterfinals (Spain vs Belgium, Norway vs England, Argentina vs Switzerland) will be played on July 11–12 in sequence to determine the other three semifinal spots.

Main title-contender analysis

Combining data from professional institutions and team performance, the current top contenders are:

- France: the current favorite with the highest championship probability at 33.9%. The team has reached the semifinals in three consecutive World Cups; its roster balances new and old players, and the forward line led by Mbappé has extremely strong attacking power. Defense in the midfield and backfield is solid overall with no obvious weaknesses, making it widely recognized as the number one by hard实力.
- Spain: the biggest favorite, as predicted by multiple authoritative institutions such as Goldman Sachs and OPTA before the tournament, with a current championship probability of about 20.4%. The team’s average age is 24, aligning with the age pattern of World Cup champions from the past ten editions. Its possession-based system is mature, and the squad depth is sufficient to handle an expanded-field, dense match schedule.
- Argentina: the defending champion, with a current championship probability of 19.6%. The roster led by Messi shows exceptional resilience in knockout matches, including a comeback from a two-goal deficit to escape a do-or-die situation. However, the average age of the core lineup is relatively high, and defending in World Cup history is extremely difficult—only Brazil achieved a successful title defense in 1962.

Football tournaments have extremely strong randomness; the above are only analyses and predictions by professional institutions and public opinion. The final champion still depends on the actual results of the matches.