Let me go on at length about my bullish expectation with crypto. Stories like the US firing a missile at Iran and it falling, etc., only concern Bitcoin market makers—those whales who trade on futures, trying to blow each other up with longs and shorts—and small investors who try to make money off those moves.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are now neither small enough to be guided by small retail inflows, nor big enough to be able to “truly” react to something as sensitive as the global economy—like gold, oil, etc.

There’s one single reality in the market, and I wrote it below. That is: in fact, from global news we discuss in broadcasts to US data—everyone’s real relevance to the direction Bitcoin will go is very low. Of course, whatever direction the global economy goes, markets go that way too; and if inflation is high, the part about cheap money not being distributed is correct—but almost all event-based repricings are speculative. People who attach such serious meanings to these headlines and think they’re reading the market long term are fooling themselves. I’ve made this mistake many times too. If it weren’t like this, at least three times the bull market would have already come—but at some point, everyone who put the bull’s “b” in their mouth was wrong.

So what’s the real thing? As you’ll say, there are now only three realities:

1- The “Strategy took positions, bought, sold, and got rekt” story. Even in the worst case, since it became something that can drag on for years, it turned into an excuse used by the crowd trying to profit from instant price reactions. That’s why its impact is very limited.

2- The exchange got hacked, a country you know banned crypto, high taxes came, etc. These stories are meaningless because in 2017, however valid and important they were, they’re the same importance today. It’s not a variable in whether the bull comes or not.

3- The most real and the clear net reason that will bring the bull: ETFs.

We’re in a market where price falls when ETFs get purchased and rises when they’re sold—at least that’s how it behaves. In recent months, we saw the drop, then a recovery for a couple of weeks. When ETFs are buying, the market is falling less; when they’re buying, it’s going up. For example, we say things like “Trump did this, Trump did that, Bitcoin didn’t fall, it came back,” but when you look, there wasn’t selling into ETFs—there was buying. Ethereum going from 1500 to 1800 over 5 straight days closed each day in the green because the ETF flows were net buys across all of those days. In other words, ETFs have become the most important marginal demand signal.

What comes after this is a bit prediction, a bit expectation. Right now, none of the firms launching ETFs—including Blackrock—is “turning on the gas” for crypto. At one point there was a gold/mining rush—then they focused on that. Other than that, while US exchanges are going wild and the AI story is still running at full speed, they don’t heavily recommend crypto to their clients. On the other side, once things slow down and they start getting a bit of correction, they’ll wait for crypto’s turn as an opportunity. When the time comes, first in the funds they manage, model portfolios, and advisory channels, they’ll start gradually increasing the weight of crypto ETFs, and then report-email campaigns with titles like “Opportunity Period in Crypto ETFs” will start landing in clients’ inboxes. That’s where the capital that lifts crypto in the next bull run will come from.

The single biggest thing that will accelerate this situation is the CLARITY Act. Once the law passes, one of the biggest obstacles in front of crypto—regulatory uncertainty—will significantly decrease. After the uncertainty of “Which asset is in what condition, which institution is authorized, will the SEC come tomorrow and say no?” for institutions recommending crypto to customers fades away, one day we’ll start seeing crypto ETF weights like 0.5%, 1%, 2% in model portfolios. In a system managing trillions of dollars, these percentages may look small, but they’ll be enormous fuel for the crypto market. Even before this law passes, the institutional buying wave I mentioned above will still come—but if it happens after, the “snowball effect” will be much bigger.

If the CLARITY Act is going to pass, it needs to be brought to the Senate and approved by vote between the last week of July and the first week of August. Otherwise, passing it in 2026 doesn’t seem technically possible and it would be pushed to next year. Of course, even if it’s accepted, actual implementation would roughly start at the beginning of 2027—but at least the pricing for it will happen earlier.

Since I’ve written this much and still haven’t been understood, I’ll also tell you why: the Democrats want the US President, Vice President, members of Congress, and senior public officials and their families to not be able to hold crypto, not be able to trade with crypto, not be able to advertise, and not have new Trump-coin scandals. And the Trump side won’t accept it either, because “we were shaking people up nicely like this, let it stay that way.” So if there’s no agreement, they’ll look at the chance of passing it with a new Senate controlled by Democrats after the November election—meaning if neither side takes a step back, it gets delayed even further and ends up in the second half of 2027...

As I said, the CLARITY Act isn’t required for a crypto bull market, but if it happens, it will be a very powerful fuel.