Gold has sharply rebounded after finding strong demand around 4025, successfully reclaiming several key moving averages. The structure has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish, but some of the upcoming candles will determine whether this is a genuine breakout or just a temporary rally.

🔹 1-Hour Chart Analysis
• $XAU Price has returned to the MA7, MA25, and MA99 levels, and is currently facing resistance at the MA200.
• MACD has formed a bullish crossover with an expanding green histogram, indicating that buyers are starting to take control.
• RSI has recovered above 60, showing bullish momentum without being in an extremely overbought condition.
• As long as Gold holds above MA200 (~4130), bulls remain in control for intraday trading.
🔹 4-Hour Chart Analysis
• The 4-hour chart structure is starting to look more compelling.
• Price has managed to reclaim the MA99.
• It is now attempting to break through and hold above MA25, which acts as immediate resistance.
• The biggest resistance remains at MA200 on the 4-hour chart around 4165, which also aligns with the prior rejection zone.
A successful breakout above 4165 will confirm a higher-low formation and could trigger a strong continuation toward 4205–4240.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If buyers keep 4130–4110 intact and break through 4165, momentum could accelerate quickly.
Expected targets: 4165 → 4205 → 4240 → 4280
A breakout above 4205 is likely to attract fresh buying pressure and increase the probability of retesting the previous swing high.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If Gold fails to hold 4110 and loses 4075, the current recovery will become vulnerable.
In that case, expect another correction toward 4050 → 4025 → 3980
A close below 4025 will invalidate the current bullish recovery and shift the trend back toward the sellers.
⚡️ Scalping Plan
🟢 Long: 4135–4120 with a candle confirmation.
➕ Add to the position on a correction nearing 4105 if support holds.
❌ Exit if price closes below 4075.
💡 Key trigger: Closely monitor resistance at 4165. A decisive breakout with strong volume can cause a rapid move toward 4205 and beyond. Until then, expect volatility to increase around this resistance zone.