What signal would mark the moment when Bitcoin truly shifts from bearish to bullish?

Leaving aside the time dimension of the cycle, if the following conditions are met, it can also be judged as the formation of an ultimate bottom:

1. A weekly close that validly reclaims 7w or above, accompanied by a significant increase in spot trading volume—this is the technical confirmation that coins are moving from weak hands back to strong hands;

2. On-chain spot net inflows, active addresses, and ETF net inflows all turn positive in sync and remain positive for at least two weeks—this is a signal of a real return of demand on the buy side;

3. Options Put Skew quickly falls back to neutral, and at the same time the funding rate has not experienced deep negative territory—so it directly enters the normal range. This indicates that market sentiment has truly been repaired.

Of course, if deep negative rates stack up with spikes that blow up most leverage by more than 10%, this kind of certainty would be higher;