$XAU A rebound is a trap—don’t rush to bottom-fish this time!

This round of gold’s rise and fall, on the surface, is driven by the intense US-Iran conflict, with Iran saying it will retaliate against US bases. But after the heat dies down, gold still spikes up and then gets smashed back down!
After finishing a big sell-off, we’re now entering a short-term minor rebound. But this is not a reversal—it’s just a correction during the decline!
The overall trend remains bearish. The highs and lows keep stepping down one after another, and the bear market structure hasn’t broken. A lot of friends see a rebound and want to buy the dip—don’t get impulsive. How easy is it to get trapped at a time like this!
The 4133-4138 area is a strong resistance neckline. The market has surged into it several times, only to be knocked back down. As long as it can’t hold steady or break through, the bearish main theme hasn’t changed!
I plan to short in the 4140-4150 range during the rebound, and if the rebound ends and it breaks below 4090, then we’ll probe further down, targeting the low around 4020. A lot of retail traders are losing badly right now.
Aunt Rong can see it but it’s making her anxious. With gold like this, you can’t really play it by luck.
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