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Below my post there will always be a view: everyone thinks it will go up, so it will fall. I don’t refute that view—the market really is against human nature. But what I oppose is the expectation that everyone feels will rise.
1. There is a huge split right now on storage, which is obvious.
2. Storage has been down for a long time. If expectations were actually consistent and bullish, it should have gone up to this day.
3. Storage is not only not unanimously viewed as bullish—instead, I think sentiment is very low. Even now, there are very few people left who are still like me, insisting on being long. A lot of people have already stopped talking. Even “Mask Brother” is shouting now with little energy.
4. On the news front as well, it’s all negative factors for storage, accompanied by all kinds of little essays.
I genuinely feel that this is not a situation where people are unanimously bullish—at least in my view, it’s a 50-50 split between being long and being short right now. You can go check the brokerage comment section: people are cursing, crying, watching the drama, making cold jokes, and sneering… If it were truly unanimously bullish, what people should be shouting would be Hynix going to 1000 (ADR), MU to 2000, and DRAM to 200! Look now—does anyone actually say that… Everyone thinks the sky is about to fall. The most private messages I’ve received are: “I can’t take it anymore—give me a little motivational speech.” Tell me—what kind of “unanimously bullish” is that?
If we go by the way you all phrase it, then tonight actually should be more optimistic—because sentiment is really, really, really low….
Discord in personal profile, buy the dip, long-term holding.