BTC rises 0.48% in 15 minutes: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost a surge in safe-haven demand, and a weaker U.S. dollar drives a rebound in “digital gold”

From 08:15 to 08:30 (UTC) on July 10, 2026, BTC rose 0.48% within 15 minutes, trading in the range of 64,018.7–64,379.9 USDT. The amplitude was 0.56%. Market attention warmed up rapidly, and volatility increased.

The core driver behind this deviation was the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. military resumed strikes against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while Iran warned of “severe consequences,” pushing the risk in the Strait of Hormuz higher. As demand for safe-haven assets surged, gold broke through $4,120, and the U.S. dollar index weakened to 100.80, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. Under the “digital gold” narrative, Bitcoin’s role as an alternative safe-haven asset gained buy-side support.

Second, CryptoQuant data shows BTC rebounded about 10% from the bear-market low. Total 30-day demand has returned to near-neutral, and the Coinbase premium index has climbed back from deeply negative levels, indicating that sell pressure on the U.S. spot market eased. Meanwhile, a negative signal from New Hampshire rejecting a $100 million Bitcoin-collateralized municipal bond was not enough to stop the day’s rally; geopolitical safe-haven sentiment dominated the market’s rhythm. With multiple factors combining into a resonance effect, short-term bulls formed a large buy-wall at the $64,183 level to support the move. However, overall order book sell volume remained dominant, with a bid-to-ask depth ratio of 0.39, leaving bulls and bears in a stalemate in the short term.

Technically, the 1-hour and daily charts are biased bullish, but the 4-hour ADX at 14.06 suggests the medium-term trend is not yet clear. The market is characterized as a “bear-market rebound,” not a trend reversal. Risks to watch include the possibility that a easing of the US-Iran situation could quickly unwind the safe-haven premium, and that sell pressure at the order book could persist. Going forward, monitor the linkage between the U.S. dollar index and gold, the breakout situation at the $64,380 resistance level, and whether support at $63,800 holds effectively. It is recommended to operate with light position sizes to guard against worsening short-term volatility.