Bitcoin’s price is likely to trade sideways in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. The post-halving supply shortage is a hard logic, and institutional inflows through ETFs continue to provide bottom support. If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates in the second half of the year, it will release liquidity and benefit risk assets.

But don’t expect a straight, nonstop surge. A high interest-rate environment suppresses the market, and sell pressure from large whales such as Mt. Gox remains a hidden risk. Regulatory black swans could appear at any time.

In the short term, the probability of trading within the $40,000–$60k range is high. Breaking above the previous high requires macro support; a true breakout may happen next year. For short-term trades, take profits at highs and buy back on dips; for long-term, invest via regular purchases and hold. Keep leverage low and stay steady-minded. Those who fantasize about getting rich overnight often end up losing the fastest.