On Polymarket, the probability of “China using force to invade Taiwan” once rose to 14% before 2027, but has since fallen back to 9%.

In Polymarket, a prediction market, the event “a military conflict between China and Taiwan occurs before 2027” saw the Yes probability rise as high as 14% this afternoon, reaching a peak in nearly three months, before quickly dropping back to the 9% level.
(Background: Lai Ching-te admitted “China’s 2027 plan to unify Taiwan by force” at a press conference; the full verbatim transcript)
(Additional context: typhoon season is here—besides insurance, the “prediction market” lets people in Taiwan plan for weather risks in advance)

Polymarket shows the “military conflict between China and Taiwan before 2027” event experiencing large swings: at around 1:44 p.m. today (10), the quote briefly jumped to 14.45%. For the next roughly 14 minutes, it hovered between 14.4% and 14.45%, before it began to fall. As of the time of publication, the latest traded price has already returned to 9%.

Looking at a longer timeline, over the past 24 hours the quote has stayed between 4.4% and 4.55%. It surged from a baseline of 4.5% to a daytime high of 14.45%, meaning it was amplified by about 3 times in a very short period. Even though it has since pulled back to 9%, it is still about 1.9 times the baseline.

In a thin market, one order can push the quote higher

Was something big happening, or did an insider have some secret information? The author can’t know the exact cause, but the answer may be hidden in the trading volume.

This event market currently has a cumulative total trading volume of about $2.84 million, which sounds substantial, but recent figures suggest liquidity is actually very thin: in the past 24 hours, trading volume was only about $24.8 thousand; over the past 7 days, about $154 thousand. Order-book liquidity is about $50.6 thousand, and open interest is about $505 thousand.

In other words, at this scale, a purchase order that isn’t particularly outrageous is enough to push the quote from single digits into the double digits in a short time. Then, once the counter-orders enter or the buyer stops, the quote slips back to where it started. This sharp jump in a short time may be more likely a liquidity event than a collective reassessment.