BTC Bottoming Debate: Three Institutions, Three Verdicts—Who Do You Trust?

As to whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, three leading institutions offered sharply different views on the same day. The disagreement is so significant that it’s worth breaking down.

**Glassnode:** Late-stage bottoming, but not yet time for a reversal

Glassnode believes Bitcoin is in the late stage of the bottoming process, but capitulation-like selling by long-term holders remains elevated. The realized loss volume has recently hit a peak near **$280 million per day**, the highest level since **December 2022**. This metric needs to be clearly compressed before the market can return to a bull market.

**CryptoQuant:** Bear market recovery, not a trend reversal

CryptoQuant delivered a more cautious assessment: this rebound still represents a “recovery within a bear market,” rather than a trend reversal. In other words, the rebound may happen, but don’t treat it as the starting point of a bull market.

**Bitwise:** The mildest bear market on a structural basis

Bitwise provides a more optimistic perspective. The current pullback from the recent high is about **50%**, which is lower than **78%** in **2022** and **84%** in **2018**. The bottom of each cycle is rising. Institutional clients are treating the decline as an opportunity for rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging.

**On-chain funds: a standoff between control and confrontation**

BitMine repurchased **20.5k ETH** from Galaxy Digital. In the same period, a whale also dumped more than **$10 million worth of ETH**. On one side, absorption; on the other, selling pressure. The market has not formed a unified force.

**A few thoughts**

All three institutions may be right—just with different time horizons. Current market sentiment remains in the extreme fear range. This is often the incubation period for long-term opportunities. But whether new lows will appear in the short term—no one can give an exact answer.

If you’re a spot allocator, you can refer to Bitwise’s logic: each cycle’s bottom is lifted, and dollar-cost averaging is more reliable than trying to bottom-fish. If you’re a derivatives trader, refer to the cautious stances from Glassnode and CryptoQuant—don’t rush to bet the farm on a reversal. $BTC $ETH #GateUS合规扩展佛罗里达