$BTC 7.10 Crypto Market Analysis

⚠️Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. High-leverage contracts are prone to liquidation.

BTC current price $63,950, up 2.18% in 24 hours. After yesterday's deep correction, a recovery rally has emerged, with prices oscillating higher during the day and briefly reclaiming the $63,000 level. ETH has rebounded to $1,750, but its gain is weaker than BTC, showing clear divergence. Public chain tokens like ARB and AVAX lead the gains, while most small-cap altcoins have limited recovery momentum. The BTC spot ETF saw a brief end to prolonged outflows, registering a small net inflow as institutions test the waters at lower levels, but the inflow volume is small, and the medium-term capital exit trend has not fully reversed.

On the macro front, repeated geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are driving up oil prices and raising inflation concerns. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 52.7%, and the market is closely watching the June CPI data released on the 14th. The probability of rates staying unchanged at the July FOMC meeting is over 70%. The high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress crypto asset valuations. The current market movement is a technical recovery after an oversold condition, but the sustainability of the bullish momentum is questionable, with heavy selling pressure above.

Key levels: BTC resistance $64,000, support $62,200; ETH resistance $1,780, support $1,700.

Trading approach: Do not chase longs at high levels. For spot, wait for pullbacks to support levels and accumulate in batches. For contracts, consider light short positions near the $64,000 resistance with strict leverage control. Altcoins show divergence and poor sustainability — avoid participating as much as possible. In the evening, focus on volatility triggered by movements in U.S. Treasuries and equities, which may cause sharp price spikes.