#美伊战争阴云再起 US-Iran conflict reignited, trapped in a "fight-and-talk cycle"?

#美伊战争阴云再起 US-Iran tensions reignite, trapped in a "cycle of strikes and talks"?

On July 8 local time, US President Donald Trump publicly stated that he no longer wants to deal with Iran, hinting that the US military might strike Iran again with heavy force. Starting from late that night, multiple locations in Iran, including Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Chabahar, reported a series of violent explosions as the US military launched a new round of strikes against Iran. The recent severe escalation in US-Iran tensions has fully exposed the fragility of the temporary ceasefire. Why did the hard-won peace shatter so quickly?

US-Iran tensions escalate again
This is the second consecutive day of US strikes against Iran. US officials said the scale of this round of strikes exceeded that of the previous day. Meanwhile, over 20 US Navy warships are patrolling various waters in the Middle East, maximizing military deterrence. Impacted by the situation, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically stopped." The US is pressing hard, and Iran is not backing down. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly told the US on July 9, "If you strike, we will retaliate," warning the US not to engage in futile military deterrence. The Iranian military simultaneously signaled that its missile and drone units are on standby, ready to launch large-scale counterattacks against US military bases in the Middle East at any time.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened an emergency security assessment meeting overnight.
The Israeli military urgently raised its combat readiness level and maintained close coordination with the US military. The core of the game is control of the Strait. Analysts believe that the repeated US-Iran military clashes, seemingly sudden, actually revolve around the same core issue—control of the Strait of Hormuz. At a time when Iran is in the special period of the funeral of its late Supreme Leader, the US launched a surprise attack, and Iran responded with a resolute and strong counterattack, unafraid of US retaliation. This fully demonstrates that control of the Strait is a non-negotiable red line for Iran. For Iran, controlling the Strait of Hormuz is not only a core bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations but also a key lever to rally domestic public opinion and shape a tough national image.

Kentaro Endo, a senior researcher at the Middle East Research Center of the Japan Institute of Energy Economics, said that the current game over the Strait of Hormuz has long surpassed the traditional nuclear issue in importance and is Iran's biggest card to seize the initiative in negotiations. Iran will not easily compromise on this. On the other hand, the US, by frequently launching limited military strikes, aims primarily to seize dominance over the Strait and re-establish military deterrence in the region. The US has always insisted that the Strait of Hormuz should remain fully open. If it fails to respond to incidents like "merchant ship attacks," it would not only lose the initiative in the Strait game but also forfeit its prestige in the Middle East.

European allies collectively pull back
Notably, the latest escalation in US-Iran conflict has completely torn apart NATO's façade of unity. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the US airstrikes as "absolutely necessary." However, this support did not receive a response from European member states—some openly criticized it, while others gave limited support. Spain refused to open its territory and airspace for operations against Iran, calling the US military action "illegal, absurd, and cruel." Italy emphasized that US flights from its bases are limited to logistical support and do not participate in combat operations. France also restricted the US from using its airspace for attacks on Iran.
The collective retreat of allies is driven by multiple practical considerations.
First, the US launched military strikes unilaterally without consulting any allies beforehand.
Second, restarting large-scale strikes under a ceasefire framework lacks legitimate international authorization.
More critically, Europe is highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, and the escalation of conflict has caused oil prices to surge, directly impacting European economies and livelihoods. Additionally, anti-war sentiment is widespread across European countries, making governments reluctant to rashly follow the US into war.

"Cycle of strikes and talks" may become the norm
Despite the mutual intransigence between the US and Iran, many experts judge that both sides will still try to avoid a significant escalation and expansion of the war, and in the short term, they will remain in a "cycle of strikes and talks."
From the US perspective, domestic inflationary pressures remain high, the public is weary of war, and NATO allies are not following suit. The Trump administration lacks the capacity to wage a large-scale war and can only maintain deterrence through limited military strikes.
From Iran's perspective, while it continues to respond with toughness, it will also avoid a complete loss of control. The US-Iran situation may maintain a game state of limited conflict and indirect contact.
🇨🇳Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that Iran will take further countermeasures, such as reducing transit quotas through the Strait or even blocking the Strait again, but the US will not allow that to happen.

Overall, the US-Iran standoff will not end, but a full-scale conflict will not come. A prolonged tug-of-war may become the norm in the Middle East situation.