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The thinking is completely right; what's missing is execution.
Let me briefly discuss today's market. After oscillating within the range yesterday, there was no further decline in the absence of news catalysts. Today, the market is showing an upward trend, testing the resistance level above.
Personally, I see two possible scenarios. The first is testing the resistance level and breaking through to continue the bullish trend. The second is failing the resistance test and pulling back to the support level (around BTC 60,700–61,800) to consolidate before resuming the uptrend.
I remain bullish on the overall trend, but the upward move may involve range-bound consolidation and dips to gather momentum.
How to apply this? For example, the recent large trend has been bullish, but the decline over the past two days was driven by macro-negative news.
So, how to trade today?
For long positions, look at indicators. This pullback has not broken the bullish trend, and after such a decline, there is a probability of a correction. Entering longs near Fibonacci support levels is one option, while strictly guarding against news events.
For short positions, focus on macro factors. Shorting requires closely monitoring news. As soon as something happens between the US and Iran, or if someone (Trump) makes remarks that worsen the situation, the market will drop. Upon seeing such news, enter shorts immediately. Take partial profits at support levels and set a breakeven stop on the remaining position.
These ideas and techniques are shared for mutual benefit. Do not trade blindly; keep your thinking clear.