BTC has once again broken through $64k. In my understanding, the easing of news sentiment provided emotional support, improved capital flows drove prices up, and short covering accelerated the breakout.

First, the news front. The major pressure in the market a few days ago came from the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the rapid rise in crude oil prices. Higher oil prices push up inflation expectations, and the market worries that the Fed's room for easing will be further compressed. As a result, BTC was briefly affected by a decline in risk appetite.

But recently, BTC has not continued to show a significant downward move despite rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions, suggesting that some macro-negative factors have already been priced in by the market in advance.

Meanwhile, the latest US initial jobless claims stood at 215k, slightly below expectations, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated significantly for now. The data is neither weak enough to trigger recession fears nor strong enough to prompt major adjustments to interest rate expectations, providing some support for risk sentiment.

Now let's talk about capital flows, which may be the more important reason for the rise. A few days ago, BTC repeatedly returned to around $64k, but ETF capital flows were volatile, and the market lacked sustained incremental capital. Every time it approached the resistance zone, selling pressure emerged. Currently, public information shows that ETF flows have still been fluctuating recently, without forming a very strong consistent inflow. Therefore, this rally cannot be simply interpreted as an overall return of institutions in the short term.