#USIranWarCloudsGather

Gold Eyes Higher Highs as Geopolitical Risks and Weak Dollar Fuel Optimism

Gold (XAU/USD) remains resilient heading into the end of the week, recovering from an early Asian-session pullback as the US Dollar extends its decline for a third consecutive trading day. Softer sentiment toward the dollar following the latest FOMC minutes has provided support for bullion, though upside momentum remains restrained by expectations that the Federal Reserve could still tighten monetary policy later this year.

The June FOMC meeting minutes painted a mixed picture. While several policymakers believe interest rates are already close to a sufficiently restrictive level, others argued that persistent inflation risks may require additional policy tightening. Consequently, markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike, keeping real yields elevated and preventing gold from gaining stronger bullish traction.

Geopolitical developments also remain in focus. Renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran briefly boosted safe-haven demand, but reports of potential diplomatic engagement helped calm investors and reduced immediate risk premiums. With neither macroeconomic nor geopolitical factors providing a decisive catalyst, gold continues to trade in a balanced environment.

XAU/USDT 4H Technical View

On the four-hour chart, gold is showing early signs that a medium-term recovery may be developing. The breakout above the descending trendline signals that bearish momentum has weakened, but buyers have yet to deliver the decisive follow-through needed to establish a sustained uptrend.

Price is currently consolidating above the 4,100 region after rebounding sharply from the 3,920-3,950 demand zone. This recovery has formed a sequence of higher lows, suggesting buyers are gradually gaining confidence. However, repeated rejection around 4,150-4,180 confirms that sellers are still actively defending this resistance area.

Momentum indicators continue to improve. Selling pressure has eased considerably, and buying momentum is slowly building. While the market has not yet entered a strong bullish phase, the technical structure now favors accumulation rather than continued decline.

A confirmed breakout above 4,180 would likely attract fresh momentum buying and shift attention toward 4,250 and 4,360. If bullish momentum strengthens further, 4,500 becomes the next major upside objective.

If resistance holds, however, gold could revisit lower support levels. A break below 4,050 would indicate fading buying interest, while a decisive move under 4,020 would invalidate the current bullish setup and expose 3,950 and 3,880 as the next downside targets.

Key Levels to Watch

Support

4,050

4,020

Major Support

3,950

3,920

Resistance

4,150

4,180

Major Resistance

4,250

4,360

Extended Upside Target

4,500

Outlook

The technical landscape is gradually improving, but gold remains in a confirmation phase. Holding above 4,020 keeps the recovery intact, while a decisive break above 4,180 would confirm that buyers have regained control and could trigger a stronger rally.

Until either of these key levels gives way, gold is likely to remain range-bound, with traders closely monitoring Federal Reserve expectations, US Dollar performance, and geopolitical headlines for the next major catalyst.

$XAUT