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According to the cycle, the bull market top was from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. Recall why you didn't sell BTC at $120k back then and instead went all in on altcoins?
Because the cycle wasn't complete, the parabolic bull hadn't arrived yet, the timing wasn't right, it definitely wasn't the top, institutions were buying, and altcoins were about to skyrocket. The Fed was cutting rates, and there would be several more consecutive cuts, with new highs of $150k and $200k waiting ahead.
Then the Fed cut rates three times in September, October, and December, and the market even expected further cuts from March to June. But the parabolic top of the bull run never came. Those who were quick started front-running the bull top as early as October. The rate cuts in October and December also proved ineffective—cuts for nothing, a bloodbath at the end of the year, and another crash in February. Apart from crypto, every other asset hit new highs because of the rate cuts.
Now everyone says: Inflation hasn't eased, the Fed will hike rates in September, the AI bubble is about to burst and drag Bitcoin down. The timing isn't right, the cycle isn't complete, it's impossible for this to be the bottom, there's still one last drop, MicroStrategy will blow up, ETF net outflows, miners are still selling, and new lows of $40k and $30k are waiting.
Back then they thought it wasn't the top; now they think it isn't the bottom.
No matter how you view the market, no matter how it fluctuates, the coin-based mindset—"1 Bitcoin is always 1 Bitcoin"—is what matters most.