The cracks in the Middle East ceasefire agreement have reappeared, and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz has re-escalated, with the market quickly repricing geopolitical risk premiums. Driven by rising risk aversion, international oil prices rebounded, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin also briefly fell to the $61.5k–$62k range, with risk assets broadly under pressure.

What truly draws market attention is whether the energy supply risk will evolve from an "event shock" into a "long-term pricing" factor. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's crude oil shipping. Once shipping is disrupted, insurance costs continue to climb, or the conflict escalates further, high oil prices could once again boost global inflation expectations, weaken market expectations for a Fed rate cut, and consequently tighten global liquidity. For the crypto market, this means short-term risk appetite may remain under pressure. The core observation points for the market going forward will be whether Hormuz shipping can remain unimpeded and whether the conflict further spills over into the global energy supply chain.