Strategy launches BTC credit model, Meta launches paid AI developer model

Headlines

▌Strategy Launches a Bitcoin-Native Credit Model to Assess Strategy Credit Risk

On July 9, Strategy launched a Bitcoin-native credit model to assess the credit risk and credit spreads of debts (such as convertible bonds) and preferred shares (such as STRC) issued by Strategy’s treasury company. The model uses custom metrics such as BTC Rating (Bitcoin coverage multiple), BTC Risk (probability of default), and BTC Credit (spread in bps), analyzing the debts and preferred shares backed by the company’s $52 billion BTC reserve. All metrics use the Bitcoin reserves held by Strategy as the collateral/risk source, with Bitcoin price, volatility, and ARR as the main variables. The analysis indicates that this move shifts Bitcoin from a store of value to a tool for capital efficiency, prompting institutions to view BTC as a financeable asset and accelerating the development of the digital credit market.

▌Meta First Launches a Paid AI Developer Model

Meta announced the first launch of its paid AI developer model, Muse Spark 1.1. The model is an agent-based and coding model that is competitive in the industry. In multiple agent evaluations, its performance is comparable to GPT-5.5 and Opus-4.8. Starting immediately, it can be accessed via the new Meta Model API and the Meta AI platform. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the planned pricing will be lower than competitors. (Jin10)

Market

As of the time of publication, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC price is $63,196.48, 24-hour change +1.5%;

ETH price is $1,744.79, 24-hour change +0.5%;

BNB price is $568.49, 24-hour change +0.5%;

SOL price is $77.98, 24-hour change +0.8%;

DOGE price is $0.07284, 24-hour change +1.0%;

XRP price is $1.09, 24-hour change +0.3%;

TRX price is $0.3317, 24-hour change +0.9%;

WLFI price is $0.05843, 24-hour change +0.1%;

HYPE price is $67.05, 24-hour change +0.2%.

Policy

▌Hong Kong SFC Requires Virtual Asset Trading Platforms to Use Authentication Methods That Prevent Impersonation and Scams

On July 9, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a circular requiring internet brokerage firms and virtual asset trading platform operators (virtual asset trading platforms) to use effective authentication methods that prevent impersonation scams for customer login and device binding. The SFC continues to combat impersonation-scam attacks and account takeover incidents targeting internet brokerage firms and virtual asset trading platforms. As part of this work, the SFC now requires internet brokerage firms and virtual asset trading platforms to stop using one-time passwords for customer login and device binding, because this practice carries associated risks, and there are currently higher-strength alternative authentication solutions, such as passkeys and bound devices, which can provide more robust and anti-impersonation-scam authentication methods. The SFC requires that these anti-impersonation-scam authentication methods be implemented as soon as practicable, but within the 12-month period from the date of issuance of the relevant circular, while large internet brokerage firms should adopt the relevant authentication methods immediately. In addition to robust preventive monitoring measures, internet brokerage firms and virtual asset trading platforms should also implement effective detection and monitoring measures to detect suspicious login, trading, and withdrawal activities; notify the relevant customers in a timely manner of important account activities; and respond promptly to hacking incidents. They should also regularly warn and remind customers about emerging impersonation scams and other cybersecurity risks.

▌Iran Says It Destroyed a US Military Command Center and an Air Base

On July 9, according to CCTV International News, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement today (July 9) saying that, during the second phase of its actions in response to US aggression that day, it used 10 ballistic missiles, which “destroyed the US military command center in the West Asia region and the US Air Force air base in Azraq, Jordan.” The statement warned that if the US launches an invasion again, other US military bases in the region will also face strikes by Iran’s intense artillery fire.

▌Sources: Pakistan Is Still Mediating; the US-Iran Negotiation Window May Reopen

On July 9, according to Iran’s Students News Agency, sources from the Pakistani government said that Pakistan and Qatar have established new channels of contact with the US and Iran, aiming to stop military actions and push both sides to return to the negotiation process in accordance with the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.” Despite the conflict escalating again, Pakistan remains optimistic about maintaining the memorandum. (Jin10)

▌US Official: US-Iran Related Technical Talks Are Still Underway

On July 10, a US official said that regarding the Iran issue, the US still remains committed to finding a solution, and relevant technical talks are still ongoing. (CCTV News)

Blockchain and AI Applications

▌Goldman Sachs Bans Employees from Participating in Prediction Trading in Financial and Political Markets

On July 10, Goldman Sachs Group has banned employees from participating in prediction market trading, except for bets in sports and entertainment categories. Goldman Sachs’ personal trading policy prohibits trading event contracts related to specific companies (including Goldman Sachs), election results, or any events related to the performance of any financial market. Goldman said that if employees violate its policy multiple times, it could lead to termination or account closure. In cases of improper trading, the firm may require employees to forfeit gains exceeding $200, or donate them to charities.

▌Musk: Admits He Previously Underestimated Anthropic, Says It Is Currently Undoubtedly a Leader in the AI Industry

On July 10, Musk said on social media that he “obviously misjudged Anthropic,” claiming that no company has released a model as excellent as its Mythos/Fable, and he expects Anthropic to soon launch Mythos 2. He said that even if Anthropic is a competitor, he would not take restrictive measures that seriously harm the other party’s development—“that’s not my style.” Musk also said Tesla had open-sourced patents and opened its supercharger network to competitors; when SpaceX launches competitors’ satellite system, it also does not raise prices or set unfair terms.

▌OpenAI CEO: Rising Computing and Memory Costs Are Undoubtedly a Disadvantage

On July 9, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that the rise in computing and memory costs is undoubtedly a disadvantage. Microsoft will still be one of OpenAI’s largest customers. OpenAI’s latest AI model has improved token efficiency by 54% in agent coding.

▌Apple in Talks with AI Company PrismML, Plans to Deploy a 27-Billion-Parameter Model on iPhone

On July 9, AI company PrismML announced that it has successfully compressed an AI model with 27 billion parameters, enabling it to run smoothly on iPhone. It is also reported that Apple has been in discussions with PrismML, exploring potential application scenarios for its technology.

Cryptocurrency

▌PayPal Stablecoin PYUSD Natively Goes Live on the Polygon Chain

Polygon Labs officially announced that PayPal USD (PYUSD), starting immediately, will be natively issued by Paxos on the Polygon chain and will be connected to the Polygon Open Money Stack (OMS). Through a single integration, enterprises can achieve cross-border transfers of regulated on-chain dollars, with built-in compliant payment collection and disbursement capabilities and KYC/AML functions. PYUSD is issued by Paxos under the nationwide trust charter regulated by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and is currently one of the largest federally regulated dollar stablecoins. The Polygon chain’s average daily stablecoin settlement volume exceeds $2.5 billion, and the cumulative settlement volume has already surpassed $2.6 trillion. After integration, enterprises that are already processing payments on Polygon can directly use PYUSD through existing wallets, fiat channels, and compliance tools. Use cases cover cross-border payroll disbursements, settlement for overseas merchants, and remittances to emerging markets, among others.

▌Strategy (MSTR) Trading Volume Surpasses Investment Banking Giant Goldman Sachs, Re-enters the US Stock Trading Volume TOP50

According to data from BitcoinTreasuries, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (ticker MSTR) has recently seen its trading volume surpass investment banking giant Goldman Sachs again, re-entering the top 50 rankings of US stocks by trading volume. The stock has continued to attract high market attention due to ongoing capital operations such as volatility in the Bitcoin price and STRC preferred shares, and its turnover rate has long been significantly higher than that of other stocks with similar market caps.

▌Federal Reserve’s Williams: The Issue of Stablecoins Is Still in an Early Stage

On July 9, Fed’s Williams: The issue of stablecoins is still in an early stage. Stablecoins are more about payments rather than a store of value.

▌If Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, the Cumulative Short Liquidation Intensity on Mainstream CEXs Could Reach $689 Million

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $64,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs could reach $689 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $62,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs could reach $267 million.

▌Temasek: No Plans to Invest in Crypto Assets, Will Focus on Deepening Its AI Deployment

On July 9, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings stated that it currently has no plans for direct investment in crypto assets, and in the future it will place its investment focus on the field of artificial intelligence. Nagi Hamiyeh, Temasek’s global head of investments, said the company manages assets of approximately SGD 5,180 billion (about $400 billion) and plans to increase the proportion of AI-related investments in its portfolio from 6% in Q1 2026 to 15% by 2031. He believes the AI investment cycle is still in its early stage, and that it will continue to have long-term growth potential over the coming decades, but valuations in parts of some sub-sectors are already ahead of fundamentals. When discussing crypto assets, Hamiyeh said Temasek currently has no direct crypto asset investments, and whether it will move into the space in the future will still depend on the development of the global regulatory environment. He also emphasized that although Temasek will not invest in crypto assets, it will continue to monitor the application potential of blockchain technology in the real economy, and believes that the true value of AI will be reflected in enterprise application deployment and the building of a business ecosystem, rather than relying solely on frontier models.

▌Citigroup Lowers Coinbase Target Price from $355 to $325

On July 9, Citigroup lowered its Coinbase target price from $355 to $325.

Major Economic Developments

▌SK Hynix to List in the US; Wall Street Investment Banks’ Total Commissions Could Reach $140 Million

On July 9, the investment banking teams participating in SK Hynix’s listing project in the US are set to reap over hundreds of millions of dollars in commissions. This Korean semiconductor giant, with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, is about to list on the US stock market, and this issuance is expected to rank among the largest IPOs in history. Two people familiar with the deal said that underwriters for the Nasdaq stock issuance, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, could have a combined total commission pool exceeding $140 million. The commission consists of two parts: first, a base underwriting fee of 0.5% of the total fundraising amount; second, a floating incentive bonus separately paid by SK Hynix. The prospectus shows that Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan serve as the lead underwriters for the company’s Nasdaq secondary listing. The estimated fundraising size is approximately $28 billion. SK Hynix will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange this Friday.

▌US SOFR and Fed Funds Rate Basis Purchases Surge; Spread Turns Positive for the First Time in July

On July 9, during Thursday’s trading in the US market, large purchases of the basis between the July SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and the federal funds rate caused the spread to turn positive for the first time, indicating that in the July contracts, the 1-month SOFR rate is below the federal funds rate. Similar buying activity also appeared in early trading on Wednesday and Tuesday.

▌Inventories Fall to Multi-Decade Lows; US Oil Reserves Struggle to Cope with the Restart of the US-Iran Conflict

On July 9, the US oil reserve system was far from prepared to respond to the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the restart of conflict. After President Trump announced a temporary ceasefire in mid-June, international oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and tanker shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, but it will take a long time to replenish the crude oil inventories to fill the gap. Data from the US Department of Energy shows that in the week ending last Friday, US commercial crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels—this was the first rise after ten consecutive weeks of decline. Now that Trump has announced the termination of the ceasefire agreement, the situation in the energy market may deteriorate further. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, said: “When inventories fall to the minimum operating threshold, the most worrying scenario for the oil market later this year is likely to come true.” He said: “Only higher oil prices, forcing demand to shrink, can rebalance supply and demand. Once inventories are completely depleted, the market will have no buffer resources available.” Energy industry executives and analysts currently do not expect a repeat of the spring oil crisis when oil prices broke $100 per barrel, but they warn that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked again—which is where about 20% of global oil trade passes—US energy security will face a serious threat. If the US is forced to continue drawing on strategic petroleum reserve crude oil, then if global oil supply disruptions occur again afterward, or if natural disasters such as hurricanes hit fuel supply chains, the US will lack sufficient reserves to provide emergency coverage; oil prices would also rise again, forcing consumers and buyers to cut back on oil usage demand.

▌Probability That the Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged in July Is 74.9%

On July 10, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, with the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike at 25.1%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through September is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 13.1%.

Golden Encyclopedia

▌Can Bitcoin Still Be Called “Digital Gold” in a Geopolitical Crisis?

Every time a geopolitical crisis occurs, gold prices rise while Bitcoin prices plunge. After six tests, the claim of “digital gold” has never been confirmed by data. Countries hoard gold yet exclude Bitcoin from reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has asymmetry: it will fall alongside stocks, but it will not rise alongside them. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from gaining safe-haven status: excess derivatives (market structure), dominance of leveraged traders (composition of participants), and the lack of repeated behavioral records (behavioral accumulation).

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a “useful asset in times of crisis.” When borders are closed and banks fail, it can indeed play a role. If these three asymmetries narrow, Bitcoin may no longer be a replica of gold, but instead become a brand-new “next-generation gold.” Generational change and the widespread adoption of algorithmic applications are key factors that could accelerate this process.