**July 10 Gold Strategy Morning Review: After Hitting Bottom at 4054 and Rebounding 100 Points, Gold Encounters Resistance! Gold Price Stuck at 4123, Bulls and Bears Brewing a Big Move Here**

Last night, gold staged a "deep squat then jump": rallying straight from the low of 4054 to as high as the 4138 round number, a single-wave gain of nearly 84 dollars, with bulls in full force. However, it failed to hold above the peak and pulled back to consolidate around 4123, forming a classic "surge—pullback—sideways" structure. The 4138 level has become a dense zone of trapped short-term longs, while 4054 below serves as the lifeline of this rebound. Bulls and bears are now in a close-quarters battle.

From the fundamental perspective, bearish factors still weigh on sentiment: the Fed's June minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials concerned about persistently high inflation. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September hovering around 70%. The dollar index strengthened to around the 101 level, capping upside for dollar-denominated gold. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, raising the carrying cost of non-yielding gold, and global gold ETF holdings continue to see outflows. Yet bullish factors are also present: geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are boosting crude oil and safe-haven demand, and central banks' long-term gold buying spree shows no sign of stopping. Mixed signals mean direction is still to be determined.

On the technical side, on the 15-minute chart, gold's short-term pullback did not break below the 4105 neckline, so the bullish structure remains intact for now. The resistance above is at 4138; breaking above would open upside room. Support below is at 4105 and 4073; a breakdown would fill the 4054 gap. With moving averages converging and volume shrinking, the market is building energy before a turning point.

Trading reference: Sell on rallies into the 4120-4140 range in batches, targeting 4100 and 4050. $XAUT