Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 10, 2026

Hua Jian Good Morning Voice

Please upgrade to the latest version of the Jianwen app to successfully listen to the following audio.

Market Overview

Chip stocks propped up US stocks again; Nasdaq rose over 1% for a second consecutive day; S&P and Dow reversed a two-day decline. The chip index closed up over 3%; Micron closed up 4.5%, SanDisk up 7.6%, Arm up over 9%, AMD up nearly 6%. Among the "Magnificent Seven," Meta led with a nearly 5% gain; Nvidia fell for the first time this week. PepsiCo fell over 3% after earnings. The China Internet index rose for two consecutive days; Alibaba closed up about 2%.

US Treasury prices halted a two-day decline; the 10-year Treasury yield moved away from a more than one-month high. The US dollar index edged lower. The yen reversed a four-day losing streak, not continuing to approach the low since 1986. Offshore Chinese yuan recovered the 6.80 level during the session, moving away from a nearly two-week low. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $63k level during the session, rebounding nearly 3% from its intraday low.

Crude oil fell, moving away from more than two-week highs; Brent crude dropped over 3% during the session. Gold, silver, and copper rebounded; gold rose over 1%; silver futures and New York copper posted their biggest gains in nearly four weeks, closing up nearly 4% and nearly 3%, respectively.

In Asia, a strong afternoon comeback: the ChiNext index surged over 4%, the STAR 50 skyrocketed 8%, SMIC hit a new high. Hong Kong AI large model leaders diverged: Zhipu rose 11%, MiniMax plunged 18%.

Headlines

> China > > The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peak Action Plan, aiming for 300 million kilowatts of new energy storage installed capacity by 2030, and striving for new energy vehicles to account for 30% of total vehicle保有量. It will promote the use of non-fossil energy power for new computing facilities. > > China's June PPI rose 4.1% YoY, CPI rose 1% YoY, driven by AI demand growth for technology equipment and semiconductors. > > CXMT initiated its STAR Market IPO process, with subscription date on July 16. > > Foxconn Industrial Internet expects H1 net profit to double at most, AI server revenue up over 230% YoY. GigaDevice expects H1 net profit to surge 10.99 times, with storage business acting as a "money printer." > > MiniMax fell over 18% on its lock-up expiration day; reportedly urgently launched a $1.9 billion financing after market close, via discounted rights issue and zero-coupon convertible bonds. > > Overseas > > Hormuz crisis hits supply: Reports say Iran urgently shipped over 63k barrels of crude oil in 24 hours; Qatar suspended LNG capacity recovery. Maritime analytics firm: Strait of Hormuz traffic plummeted, nearly halted. > > Israeli Defense Minister: IDF ready to resume military operations against Iran. Israeli PM: "Will not allow" Iran to have nuclear weapons, plans to significantly increase defense budget. US official: US-Iran technical negotiations continue. > > Ukrainian drones penetrate Russian energy defenses? Nine out of ten major refineries attacked; Russia announces diesel export ban. > > Federal Reserve officially announces leadership lineup for five reform working groups, including former central bank governors, Silicon Valley AI giants, and Nobel Prize-winning economists. > > OpenAI fully releases GPT-5.6 two weeks after "supply limits," simultaneously launches new agent ChatGPT Work. CEO Altman says "many adjustments" made after communicating with the US government. > > Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke joins Anthropic's governance body, overseeing AI risk and public interest. > > Report: SK Hynix ADR guidance price at $149, a 3.1% premium over its Korea stock closing price; institutional subscription multiple exceeds 7 times. > > Meta joins AI price war, launches first paid large model, capabilities surpass Google Gemini, priced at only a quarter of competitor Anthropic's offering. Report: Meta's self-developed AI chip "Iris" plans mass production in September, aiming to double computing power to 14 GW by 2027. > > Micron raises its US investment plan by $50 billion to $250 billion, targeting 40% of DRAM production in the US.

Market Close

US and European stocks: S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,543.64; Dow rose 0.27% to 52,487.41; Nasdaq rose 1.30% to 26,206.89. European STOXX 600 rose 0.78% to 640.87.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite rose 1.65% to 4,036.59; Shenzhen Component rose 3.07% to 15,398.73; ChiNext rose 4.49% to 4,018.17.

Bonds: At the close, the US 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.55%, down about 3 bps on the day; the 2-year yield was about 4.18%, down about 4 bps.

Commodities: WTI August crude oil futures fell 1.96% to $72.08/barrel. Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $76.3/barrel. COMEX July gold futures rose 1.47% to $4,130.6/oz. COMEX July silver futures rose 3.81% to $60.378/oz. COMEX July copper futures rose 2.65% to $6.215/lb.

Details

Global Highlights

China

The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peak Action Plan, aiming for 300 million kilowatts of new energy storage installed capacity by 2030, and promoting the use of non-fossil energy power for new computing facilities. The plan states that by 2030, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 17% lower than in 2025, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25%. By 2030, pumped storage capacity will reach about 160 million kilowatts, the national virtual power plant's maximum regulation capacity will reach over 50 million kilowatts, and power demand response capacity will reach over 5% of peak load. By 2030, the share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle保有量 will strive to reach 30%, and the share in commercial transport vehicles will reach 25%.

China's June PPI rose 4.1% YoY, CPI rose 1% YoY, driven by AI demand growth for technology equipment and semiconductors! The National Bureau of Statistics said that as AI application scenarios expand, new materials are widely used, and green transformation continues, prices of virtual reality equipment manufacturing rose 8.4% MoM, wearable smart device manufacturing rose 3.4%, industrial control computer and system manufacturing rose 3.3%, and industrial robot manufacturing rose 0.5%.

• Guolian Minsheng macro analyst Zhong Yumei believes that although June PPI YoY hit a near 46-month high, the MoM figure turned negative. With international oil prices falling from highs, the external support that previously drove price increases is accelerating weakening. June PPI YoY may have reached a cyclical peak, and the "reflation" in the second half of the year requires more endogenous momentum.

Musk "copied" Zhipu. Musk said Grok 4.5 is faster and more token-efficient, an "Opus-level" model. This low-price strategy is seen by market observers as highly consistent with the cost-effective approach of Chinese open-source vendors (such as Zhipu GLM-5.2), putting pressure on high-priced closed-source models like Anthropic. Meanwhile, xAI's acquisition of Cursor is believed to be aimed at obtaining real programming data, building a flywheel effect to compete for market share in programming agents.

CXMT launched its STAR Market IPO process, with subscription date on July 16. The company's H1 net profit surged over 22 times; the chairman pledged not to reduce holdings for 10 years and contributed 768 million shares of his own to employees. The market generally believes that, relying on the company's bright H1 earnings expectations and the valuation dividends of the AI computing track, CXMT's theoretical market value after listing could reach 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan.

• Turning point has arrived! CXMT's IPO may trigger a new cycle of domestic semiconductor capex. Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that CXMT's IPO approval, planning to raise 29.5 billion yuan for expansion and upgrades, serves as a catalyst for domestic chain order fulfillment. The expansion wave will roll out along the "equipment, components, materials" three-tier echelon: front-end etching and thin-film deposition equipment benefit first, core components follow, and later-cycle materials and consumables will be realized as production lines ramp up.

Foxconn Industrial Internet expects H1 net profit to double at most, AI server revenue up over 230% YoY. Foxconn Industrial Internet expects attributable net profit for H1 2026 to be 23.4 billion to 24.4 billion yuan, up 93%–101% YoY; non-GAAP net profit up 94%–103%, both near doubling. Driven by AI infrastructure demand, cloud service provider AI server revenue surged 230%, the core growth engine, and next-generation products will begin mass production in H2. AI clusters drive demand for high-speed interconnection; 800G and above switch shipments grew 1.4 times YoY.

GigaDevice expects H1 net profit to surge 10.99 times, with storage business acting as a "money printer." GigaDevice's H1 results were stellar: revenue 11.5 billion yuan (+177%, exceeding full-year 2025), net profit 6.9 billion yuan (+1,099%, 4.2 times full-year 2025), driven by both volume and price increases in storage and MCU ramp-up. Non-GAAP net profit was 4.85 billion yuan (+791%).

MiniMax, where "80% of shareholders won't sell," fell over 18% on its lock-up expiration day. On July 9, 153 million restricted shares of MiniMax became unlocked. Over 80% of shareholders had just stated "won't sell" the night before. The market responded with real money, not out of disbelief, but because in the face of a 48.9% selling scale, any verbal commitment appears pale.

• After the lock-up expiration, urgently launched a $1.9 billion financing: MiniMax fights a "computing power survival battle" with a discounted rights issue and zero-coupon convertible bonds. MiniMax initiated its largest refinancing since listing — issuing new shares via rights issue along with zero-coupon convertible bonds, seeking to raise about $1.9 billion, nearly three times its IPO proceeds. With stock selling pressure not yet dissipated and financing already on the way, behind it is the computing power burn of the trillion-parameter model M3 Pro and a stress test of market confidence.

Overseas

Hormuz crisis hits supply: Iran reportedly shipped over 20k barrels of crude oil in 24 hours; Qatar suspends LNG capacity recovery. Reports say Iran urgently dispatched multiple tankers within 24 hours to transport a total of 11 million barrels of crude oil, roughly equivalent to its pre-conflict weekly export volume. After a Qatar LNG tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar decided to suspend the accelerated capacity recovery plan at the Ras Laffan facility, one of the world's largest LNG production bases, and will maintain minimum operating levels.

• Maritime analytics firm: Strait of Hormuz traffic plummeted, nearly halted. UK-based Windward Maritime Analytics reported on Thursday, July 9, that from the night of July 8 to the early morning of July 9, only five transits were recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, with only one vessel departing the Persian Gulf.

Day 2 after the "end" of ceasefire: US expands strikes, Iran retaliates hitting Qatar base, Trump talks while fighting. The US second round of airstrikes expanded to the Bushehr area, hitting about 90 military targets. Iran used drones for the first time to retaliate against US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, triggering air defense alerts in multiple Gulf countries. Although Trump said he does not believe the war will break out again, the conflict continues to spill over, causing sharp fluctuations in international oil prices.

EU issues flight warning! Alerts sounded in Qatar and Bahrain; Kuwait says it intercepted "enemy" aerial targets. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency on July 8 advised airlines to avoid Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese airspace due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. Qatar's interior ministry on July 9 said alerts were sounded in the country, urging citizens to take shelter. Bahrain's interior ministry confirmed sounding air defense alerts. Earlier, after the US attacked Iranian military facilities, Iran quickly retaliated against US facilities in Gulf countries like Bahrain.

Israeli Defense Minister: IDF ready to resume military operations against Iran. Israeli PM: "Will not allow" Iran to have nuclear weapons, plans to significantly increase defense budget. Netanyahu announced an additional 350 billion new shekels (about $117.7 billion) to the defense budget over the next 10 years, a significant portion of which will go to air force construction, while developing domestic arms industries to reduce dependence on overseas purchases.

US official: US-Iran technical negotiations continue.

Ukrainian drones penetrate Russian energy defenses? Nine out of ten major refineries attacked; Russia announces diesel export ban. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian energy infrastructure, endangering Russian energy production. June crude oil processing volume hit a 20-year low. Over half of federal subjects implemented fuel purchase restrictions, with some gas stations reporting queues of up to 18 hours. Putin urgently convened a video conference, announced a diesel export ban, and acknowledged "a certain degree of fuel shortage," with the fuel crisis possibly lasting until September.

Federal Reserve officially announces leadership lineup for five reform working groups, including former central bank governors, Silicon Valley AI giants, and Nobel Prize-winning economists. The Monetary Policy Communication Working Group is led by former Bank of England Governor King, former Central Bank of Brazil Governor Fraga, etc. The Balance Sheet Policy Working Group is led by former Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan, etc. The Productivity and Employment Working Group, led by a16z co-founder Andreessen, Microsoft EVP Sharma, etc., will evaluate the impact of new technologies like AI. The Inflation Framework Working Group is led by Nobel laureate Sargent, Harvard economics professor Mankiw, etc. The Economic Data Working Group is led by former Walmart CEO McMillon, etc.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is set to be revised! Analysts: could provide space for Warsh to hold steady. The BEA will release the PCE annual revision in September; economists estimate the core inflation reading could be revised down by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points. Although the magnitude is limited, against the backdrop of near evenly split views within the Fed on whether to raise rates in 2026, this marginal change is enough to tip the policy balance. Combined with oil price corrections and signals that employment data may be overestimated, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged for the year is rising.

OpenAI fully releases GPT-5.6 two weeks after "supply limits," simultaneously launches new agent ChatGPT Work. CEO Altman says "many adjustments" made after communicating with the US government. The three new models of GPT-5.6 outperform Anthropic Fable 5 in benchmarks; the flagship Sol costs a quarter of the latter, while Terra and Luna cost only 1/16. The new agent ChatGPT Work, powered by GPT-5.6, is seen as a combination of ChatGPT and Codex, supporting continuous multi-hour work across applications. Altman did not specify the adjustments, said he doesn't know if OpenAI will IPO this year, noted that GPT-5.6 improves token efficiency by 54% in agent programming, and acknowledged that Chinese open-source models are becoming "very good."

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke joins Anthropic's governance body, overseeing AI risk and public interest. Nobel Prize-winning economist and former Fed Chairman Bernanke officially joined the Long-Term Benefit Trust. The trust members have the power to appoint or remove the majority of the board and can remove directors they appoint; members themselves hold no equity in the company, and their role is a supervisory one independent of commercial interests. Bernanke's addition is seen as an important step by Anthropic to strengthen the credibility of its public mission.

Report: SK Hynix ADR guidance price at $149, a 3.1% premium over its Korea stock closing price. SK Hynix's ADR guidance price is set at $149 per share, raising about $26.5 billion, potentially setting a record for foreign companies' US IPOs. Institutional subscription multiple exceeds 7 times, with strong demand. The stock is expected to pre-issue as "SKHYV" on Friday and officially list on July 13.

• SK Hynix ADR listing imminent; Chairman Choi Tae-won seeks meetings with Nvidia and Tesla executives during same period. SK Hynix will list on the Nasdaq on July 10, formally listing American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). The offering is about 17.79 million shares, representing about 2.5% of issued shares, with a fundraising scale of about 43 trillion won. Funds will be mainly invested in HBM capacity expansion, advanced packaging, and the Yongin semiconductor cluster. Chairman Choi will attend the bell-ringing ceremony in New York, planning to meet with Nvidia and Tesla executives during the trip to deepen strategic collaboration with global tech giants.

Meta joins AI price war! Launches first paid large model, capabilities surpass Google Gemini, priced at only a quarter of competitor Anthropic's offering. Meta launched its flagship model Muse Spark 1.1, which has surpassed Google's Gemini in multiple test items including agent capabilities, programming, and multimodality. Zuckerberg revealed that Meta's API pricing is about a quarter of the official prices of comparable top-tier models from OpenAI and Anthropic.

• Report: Meta's self-developed AI chip "Iris" plans mass production in September, aiming to double computing power to 14 GW by 2027. Meta plans to mass-produce its self-developed AI chip "Iris" as early as September 2026, the fourth-generation MTIA product, supported by Broadcom and manufactured by TSMC, aiming to reduce dependence on external suppliers like Nvidia and save costs. The chip completed critical testing in just six weeks, showing rapid progress. Meta aims to double its data center computing power to 14 GW by 2027 and maintain an iteration cadence of roughly one new chip generation every six months.

Micron raises its US investment plan by $50 billion to $250 billion, targeting 40% of DRAM production in the US. Micron's additional $50 billion investment will be added to its previous $200 billion commitment, covering multiple plant construction plans in New York, Idaho, and Virginia, with overall spending expected to extend through 2035. Meanwhile, Micron said it will allocate an additional $3 billion to strengthen the domestic semiconductor supply chain.

Key piece for Apple's on-device AI? iPhone includes a 27-billion-parameter large model for the first time. PrismML announced it has successfully compressed an AI large model with 27 billion parameters to run locally on the iPhone 17 Pro, setting a new record for mobile AI model size. Sources say Apple has contacted them, and this technology could become a key breakthrough for Apple to strengthen on-device AI and reduce reliance on the cloud.

Research Highlights

Are US AI stocks too expensive? Top fund managers: Rotate to Chinese tech stocks, UK high-dividend stocks, and global energy. US stock valuations are flashing warning signs again; the S&P 500's CAPE ratio adjusted for earnings revisions hit 68 times, a record high. Several international fund managers warn of the risk of excessive concentration in AI trades and suggest increasing allocations to Chinese tech stocks, UK high-dividend stocks, and energy sectors to diversify potential US stock pullback risks.

Mirroring 1996 — Will South Korea repeat the Asian financial crisis? Tan Macro believes that South Korea currently shows similarities to the 1997 Asian financial crisis on a macro level. First, exports are highly dependent on semiconductors. Second, the stock market is starting to see deep corrections after significant gains. Third, openness to foreign capital and inflows are at cyclical highs. Fourth, macro aggregate indicators show no signs of crisis. South Korea's financial stability index is at the 62nd percentile historically (a "yellow light" zone), but the main risks are concentrated in the stock market, not a systemic financial crisis.

Commodity veteran: Now is the best time to buy gold, long-term target $10,000, silver target $150-200. Commodity investor Trey Reik points out that gold has corrected over 25% due to Fed rate hike concerns, but the US's massive debt limits the scope for rate hikes. He predicts $4,000 as the bottom of this adjustment, with long-term gold targets of $10,000 and silver of $150-200. Recent precious metal volatility is distorted by "paper trading," but mining company profits remain substantial and an industry M&A wave is coming, suggesting using the summer adjustment period for medium to long-term positions of 3-5 years.

Former Goldman Sachs commodity head Jeff Currie: AI boom sows capital misallocation risks, "revenge of the old economy" far from over. Currie believes the commodity supercycle launched in 2020 is far from over. Three demand engines — deglobalization, electrification, and currency debasement — are accelerating, while AI stocks are severely overvalued relative to physical hard assets. Due to long-term underinvestment causing capacity scarcity, energy's share in the S&P 500 should logically rise from 3% to 10%-15%.

Xiaomi Auto's second card: After SU7/YU7, can "Penghang" become a new growth pole? Xiaomi's car-making strategy is at a key inflection point. Lei Jun personally previewed the second brand — an extended-range SUV family series "SkyNomad Xiaomi Penghang," priced at 200k to 450k yuan, targeting Li Auto and AITO's core market. The news triggered a single-day surge of over 10% in Xiaomi's stock, as the market sensed Xiaomi's ambition to transform from a "blockbuster product logic" to a "multi-brand platform." Can the Kunlun architecture, flat floor, and AI smart space, developed over three and a half years, crack the largest sub-segment of the new energy market?

From "scarcity" to "slowdown"? "Bearish" Deutsche Bank: Pop Mart's IP cycle has peaked, facing more severe downside risks in H2. Deutsche Bank says that just one week after the launch of the flagship IP Labubu 4.0, secondary market prices for some products have fallen below 50 yuan, signaling weakening IP momentum. Simultaneously, promotional inventory clearance is spreading across multiple markets. Looking ahead to H2, the bank preliminarily estimates a 35% YoY decline in Q3 group revenue, an 18% YoY decline in Q4, and a 6% YoY decline in full-year 2026 revenue to 35 billion yuan.

Pig prices have risen for 11 consecutive weeks. Is it time to get into the "pig module"? Institutions are divided. Pig prices have risen over 20% for 11 consecutive weeks, bringing the breeding sector back into the spotlight, but whether it's a "rebound or reversal" has split institutions. Optimists see deep losses, continuous reduction in breeding sows, and policy production cuts, believing the cycle turning point is near. Cautious voices warn that secondary fattening is just "pushing supply back," and with a consumption off-season and large group farms releasing volume, pig prices still face the risk of bottoming out. Getting into the "pig module" may still be a left-side trade.

Overseas Macro

US initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 215k last week; layoff rate remains at historical lows. The US job market is showing a "slow hiring, no layoffs" pattern: companies are retaining employees strongly, reducing layoffs, but the pace of hiring has clearly slowed. For the week ending July 4, initial claims fell to 215k, below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.81 million, the highest since March, reflecting increased difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs.

US existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June, inventory improvement limited, prices hit record highs. US June existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 4.09 million units, down 2.4% MoM, below the expected 4.20 million. June inventory of existing homes for sale was 1.56 million units, up 1.3% YoY, but posted the first slight MoM decline this year, with analysts describing the inventory increase as "negligible." Meanwhile, the June median existing home sale price rose 1.8% YoY to $440.6k, a record high.

Cocoa prices have surged 100% since March! Jefferies: El Niño may follow heavy rains, exacerbating West African production crisis. New York cocoa futures have doubled in price since March, nearing $6,000 per ton. Major West African producers Ivory Coast and Ghana are experiencing unusually heavy rainfall, with diseases like black pod disease rampant, and new season production is expected to plummet about 18%. A potential El Niño could trigger drought, further worsening the production crisis, and cocoa prices may remain high and volatile.

Overseas Companies

Is the end of AI nuclear energy? Microsoft and Google are frantically buying nuclear power, and small modular reactors become Wall Street's new favorite. Surging electricity demand from AI data centers is driving the strongest nuclear revival in the US in decades. Tech giants are scrambling to lock in nuclear resources, the Trump administration is increasing support for nuclear expansion, and SMRs are becoming the focus of capital. However, bottlenecks in regulation, construction, and fuel supply remain to be broken, and large-scale nuclear deployment will take time.

Wall Street backs Nvidia: single rack price increase of $3 million far exceeds HBM cost, 18x PE is 30% lower than peers. Two major Wall Street investment banks simultaneously supported Nvidia: Bank of America quantified that the rack price surged by $2 million to $3 million from Blackwell to Rubin, far exceeding the increase in HBM cost, with gross margins firmly in the mid-70% range. Citigroup's supply chain survey confirmed the roadmap is unchanged. With the forward PE ratio falling to 18 times, a seven-year low, institutions are calling for buying on dips.

Nvidia completes AI software stack puzzle: partners with LangChain to launch Agent Blueprint, reasoning cost drops 10 times. Nvidia partnered with LangChain to release the NeMoClaw Deep Agents Blueprint, positioned as an enterprise-grade agent reference architecture, focusing on solving deployment challenges like governance, auditing, and continuous iteration. The single-task reasoning cost for this solution is only $4.48, compared to $43.48 for competitors. This move fills the gap in the NeMo ecosystem, promoting Nvidia's expansion from a computing power provider to an enterprise-grade agent development standard and full-stack AI ecosystem platform.

Bain Capital fully exits Kioxia! "Distressed asset" acquisition 10 years ago yields epic returns amid "storage frenzy." Bain Capital has fully exited its stake in Kioxia Holdings, marking a perfect end to the nearly decade-long investment. From acquiring Toshiba's distressed assets to riding the AI storage demand wave, Kioxia's stock has surged over 4,800% from its IPO price since listing in 2024, delivering record returns for Bain and ranking among the most dazzling success stories in private equity history.

AI reshapes enterprise IT! Starbucks launches "in-house software," Microsoft and IBM face new challenges. Starbucks is leveraging AI to significantly lower the barrier to software development, promoting in-house development to replace systems from vendors like Microsoft, IBM, and Oracle, aiming to cut annual IT spending of $400 million. The replacement software could be tested as early as the end of next year.

Samsung's Lee Jae-yong appears at Sun Valley Summit, targeting orders from Apple, Amazon, and OpenAI. Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong, accompanied by the head of foundry business, attended the Sun Valley Summit, focusing on winning advanced process orders. The foundry collaboration with Apple for processors is the biggest highlight, with AI giants like Amazon and OpenAI also seen as potential customers. As TSMC's capacity tightens, Samsung is accelerating its push to capture global high-end chip orders.

Industry/Concepts

1. UHV | According to reports, on July 9, the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peak Action Plan was released. The plan proposes accelerating the improvement of the power system's capacity to absorb new energy. It calls for enhancing cross-provincial and cross-regional power transmission and complementary mutual aid capabilities, accelerating the construction of UHV external transmission channels, adding over 80 million kilowatts of west-to-east power transmission capacity, and vigorously promoting inter-provincial power mutual aid projects. It supports local consumption of new energy, actively develops green electricity direct connection and new energy nearby access to incremental distribution networks, and promotes source-grid-load-storage integrated development.

Commentary: China Galaxy Securities believes that strengthening UHV and main grid investment and enhancing grid resource allocation capabilities are the top priorities of the State Grid during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. The State Grid stated that it will strive to put into operation the 15 planned UHV DC projects as early as possible, increase cross-provincial power transmission capacity by 35%, and build a number of power mutual aid projects to more than double the flexible mutual aid capacity between regions, meeting the needs of large-scale efficient allocation of new energy. At the same time, it will optimize the regional main grid structure, coordinate power source and grid planning, and match the development schedule of centralized new energy bases to ensure efficient resource allocation.

2. Aerospace | According to reports, China's first orbital-class reusable rocket—the Long March 1.9B—is scheduled for its maiden flight between July 10 and 13 at the No. 2 launch pad of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site. Specifically, the core highlight of this launch is the simultaneous verification of a world-first technology—"maritime net recovery." Unlike the vertical landing leg recovery used by SpaceX's Falcon 9, the first stage of the Long March 1.9B eliminates heavy landing legs, and during re-entry, China's first rocket net recovery ship, "Pioneer," will capture it in mid-air using a giant flexible barrier net. If the recovery is successful, China will become the second country in the world to master large-payload reusable rocket technology, reducing unit launch costs by over 40%, and directly serving the low-cost and efficient networking of national low-orbit satellite constellations like the "Thousand Sails Constellation."

Commentary: Soochow Securities believes that China's commercial aerospace is at a critical transition from technical verification to large-scale industrialization. In 2026, the strategic positioning of commercial aerospace has historically leaped to become an emerging pillar industry, included in the key tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan." The state has established a dedicated commercial aerospace regulatory department, introduced special development plans, and relaxed STAR Market listing standards, building a complete governance system covering top-level planning, industry supervision, capital markets, and local support, becoming a core support for China to cultivate new productive forces and build a space power.

3. Co-packaged optics (CPO) | According to reports, the "Supernode and GW-level AIDC Technology Forum and Open AI Infra Community Semi-Annual Work Meeting" was held in Beijing, guided by the Global Computing Consortium (GCC) and hosted by the Open AI Infra Community (OAII Community). At the meeting, Huawei, together with over 20 industry chain partners including China Mobile Research Institute, JD Cloud, Baidu, and China Electronics Standardization Institute, jointly launched the OPEN NPO project and initiated the first domestic NPO optical interconnect MSA (Multi-Source Agreement), promoting the construction of an open and unified near-package optics standard system, accelerating next-generation high-speed optical interconnect technology innovation and industrial collaboration, and providing key support for the development of high-end computing infrastructure in the AI era.

Commentary: With the explosive growth of AI large model training and inference demand, the demand for high-bandwidth, low-power interconnects in data centers has surged, and NPO technology is entering the stage of large-scale engineering implementation. 2026-2027 is seen as the golden explosive period for NPO, the core phase for performance realization in this track. The core growth driver during this phase comes from large-scale orders from top customers, such as the batch shipment of Nvidia's NVL576 series racks, the full deployment of Huawei's Ascend clusters, and the large-scale expansion of Google's TPU clusters. These massive demands will directly drive the capacity release and shipment growth of NPO systems, optical engines, and supporting components. The future optical interconnect market will not be dominated by a single technology; LPO (Linear Pluggable Optics), NPO, CPO, and other architectures will coexist for the long term. Even if CPO gradually matures in the future, NPO can still maintain a stable share in the mid-to-high-end market.

4. Semiconductors | According to reports, on July 9, the full line commissioning ceremony of the original JIWEI Technology's two-dimensional semiconductor engineering demonstration process line was held in Hongtu Building, Chuansha New Town, Pudong New Area, Shanghai. According to reports, this pilot line has achieved full-process stable verification, marking that China's two-dimensional semiconductor technology has completely left the laboratory and entered a new stage of engineering verification and small-volume tape-out. Original JIWEI was founded by the National Key Laboratory of Integrated Chips and Systems and the School of Microelectronics at Fudan University, and is the first domestic two-dimensional semiconductor company focusing on beyond-Moore and non-silicon heterogeneous integration technologies. Original JIWEI Technology has simultaneously planned to build a commercial mass production line for two-dimensional semiconductors within the next three years, striving to achieve mass production with a "fully domestic solution" by 2030.

Commentary: With its core advantages such as atomic-level thickness, high carrier mobility, no dangling bond surface, excellent mechanical properties, and rich material system, two-dimensional semiconductors have become a key technical path to break through the physical limits of silicon chips and extend Moore's Law. The global market is expected to reach $30-50 billion by 2035, with initial commercial applications in areas such as low-power edge computing, flexible electronics, and high-performance optoelectronic devices. Related A-share concept stocks include... (omitted in source).

5. Retail | According to reports, the opinions on accelerating the innovative development of the retail industry, issued by the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments, were released on July 9. The opinions clearly state the goal of forming a modern retail system with reasonable layout, quality supply, diverse formats, smart convenience, and orderly competition by 2030. It supports strengthening and expanding retail enterprises, enhancing the industry's comprehensive competitiveness, livelihood service capabilities, and consumption driving capacity. It promotes the concentration of resources and factors towards physical retail, policy measures towards physical retail, and work forces towards physical retail. It strengthens policy integration from aspects such as land use guarantees, financing support, tax reduction, optimizing approvals, and the rule of law market.

Commentary: China's retail industry is in a critical reshaping period of transitioning from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development." In the coming years, the domestic retail industry will form a stable pattern of multi-format long-term coexistence and layered competition, with some tracks experiencing deterministic growth. Warehouse membership stores continue to penetrate; discount formats expand to the mid-market; instant retail emerges as a new force, becoming a core growth engine. In the future, digital intelligence and green transformation will be deeply integrated, consumption scenarios will cover the entire chain of production, circulation, consumption, and recycling, and extend to urban and rural areas.

Today's Key Events

The maiden flight test of the Long March 10B may target the period from July 10 to July 13.

2026 China Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry Exhibition.

Germany June CPI.

SK Hynix US ADR provisionally listed on Nasdaq on July 10.

IEA releases monthly oil market report.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

        Market risk exists, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.