$PEPE July 10 (Beijing Time) - Latest authoritative news on Iran-Middle East situation



I. Current Military Confrontation

1. U.S. military developments
The White House and Pentagon announced early on the 10th the launch of the largest wave of airstrikes since the beginning of this conflict, focusing on Iranian missile launch positions, drone factories, and naval facilities along the Persian Gulf coast. U.S. Central Command confirmed that from July 7 to 9, a total of 170 targets inside Iran were struck, including air defense radars, anti-ship missiles, speedboats, eastern railway bridges, and the outer perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Trump stated publicly that the previous memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. has completely collapsed, and if Iran continues to attack merchant ships and U.S. forces, the scope of strikes will be expanded further.

2. Iran's retaliatory actions (evening of July 9 to early morning of July 10)
- The Revolutionary Guard launched 10 ballistic missiles on the afternoon of the 9th, striking the U.S. Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan and the U.S. West Asia Command Center. At the same time, drones and missiles were used to attack two U.S. bases in Kuwait and two in Bahrain (the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters is located in Bahrain). Iran's official statement called this only the first phase of retaliation; if the U.S. bombs Iranian territory again, Iran will strike all U.S. bases in the Middle East and fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
- Explosions were reported successively on the evening of the 9th in Iran's southern Bushehr and Sistan-Baluchestan provinces. Local officials confirmed that a naval base was attacked by enemy aircraft; Bushehr's air defense systems intercepted incoming U.S. munitions, with no civilian casualties reported so far.
- A senior Iranian consular official told the media that Iran had originally exercised restraint, but the U.S. continued to provoke, and Iran will take decisive retaliatory measures on the battlefield going forward.

II. Internal Events in Iran

1. In the holy city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran (where Khamenei's funeral was just held), a shooting incident occurred in the early hours of July 10, resulting in 2 deaths. The identity of the perpetrator has not yet been determined, and security forces have been fully reinforced.

2. Maritime situation: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy has tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that all transiting oil tankers must report in advance. British and U.S. warships have increased patrols near the strait, significantly reducing transit efficiency, and international crude oil prices continue to rise.

III. Diplomatic Level

1. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi called the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff to protest the U.S. aggression and sought understanding from neighboring Arab countries. Iran's official statement accused the U.S. military of bombing civilian bridges, calling it a war crime.

2. Gulf countries are collectively worried about losing control of the situation. Air raid sirens have repeatedly sounded in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, forcing regional countries to choose sides and escalating diplomatic pressure.

IV. Subsequent Market Predictions

1. Short term: The next 24 to 48 hours remain highly dangerous, with a high probability that the U.S. military will launch another round of airstrikes. Iran may launch additional missile attacks against the U.S. military at any time.

2. Energy aspect: If Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz, global crude oil supply will be severely hit, and oil prices are likely to surge.

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