CryptoQuant says Bitcoin's rebound is a bear market recovery, not a trend reversal. This statement, in the current market, is worth reading repeatedly over any single-day gain or loss.

There are three reasons: First, ETF capital flows have not confirmed a direction—private credit redemptions in Q2 surged to $15.6 billion, far exceeding the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that risk appetite contraction is systemic, not unique to crypto. Second, on-chain data shows that whales have not significantly increased holdings during the rebound; instead, some addresses have been distributing in batches. Third, on the macro front, the shadow of Fed rate hikes has not dissipated, tech stock volatility has surged, and Bitcoin's rebound looks more like an oversold correction after short liquidations rather than a trend driven by new capital inflows.

The market tends to interpret every rebound as a "reversal," but a true bottom requires time, changes in capital structure, and a redistribution of on-chain positions. CryptoQuant's assessment may be conservative, but it is arguably the most honest judgment at present.

The risk is: if macro conditions unexpectedly improve (e.g., the Fed turns dovish), a bear market recovery could evolve into a mid-term rebound. But betting on that direction is essentially gambling on a policy shift, not on the market's own signals.
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