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Today's trend is technically shocking. Just after rebounding from the bottom, it was originally expected that SNDK would oscillate around the dense long-term moving averages. After breaking through the 30MA at the market open, the next target was the 20MA, which is around 1876.
Note: The moving average I use here is EMA, which may differ slightly from simple MA values.
Unexpectedly, at noon, due to the revival of short-term gamblers on the 2000 call, SNDK surged as much as 13%, even breaking through the 1950 level. I thought it was going to 2000 today, but something felt off.
As a result, in the last hour, it indeed came back down unchanged, closing at 1858, which is right above the 30MA and below the 20MA.
Between the narrow moving averages, it actually closed with an upper shadow, giving back all of the midday gains. It seems the bears are not dead yet.
That being the case, tomorrow's trend is quite subtle. Worst case: IPO breaking issue price, drain effect, and SNDK has another gap to fill below, which is today's gap, with a low at Wednesday's close of 1737.
Best case: it returns to the intraday high, or even breaks 2000. Which one will it be? We'll have to wait and see. I personally lean slightly towards the former, with a probability distribution of 60% to 40%.
Let me reiterate again: Technical analysis, like football commentary, literary appreciation, and music appreciation, is essentially a tool to help you understand the results and motives of Wall Street's performance.
Technical analysis cannot help you predict the future, nor can it help you go head-to-head in the short term with Wall Street's thousands of math PhDs and tens of thousands of AI trading bots. For those who want to use technical analysis to make money in front of a steamroller, I suggest giving up early and switching to long-term investing.
Thank you all.