XRP price prediction after breakout puts $1.14 and $1.18 back in focus

XRP has recovered from this week’s sharp sell-off after defending the $1.07 support zone, with traders weighing an emerging bullish chart breakout against persistent geopolitical and regulatory risks that continue to cap upside.

According to data from, $XRP price was trading near $1.09 at press time after rebounding from Tuesday’s low of around $1.07, though it remained below the July 4 peak near $1.18.

Risk appetite improved slightly after the initial wave of selling tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions eased, but sentiment across the altcoin market remains cautious following more than $400 million in crypto liquidations earlier this week. XRP itself accounted for over $8.6 million in long liquidations during the sell-off, underscoring how heavily leveraged positioning amplified the decline.

Adding to the recovery narrative, analysts believes XRP has completed a notable technical milestone.

While the short-term bounce has attracted fresh buyers, institutional sentiment has yet to fully recover. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded roughly $7.29 million in net outflows on July 8, the largest single-day withdrawal since March.

At the same time, legislative uncertainty continues after the White House missed its July 4 target for passing the CLARITY Act, leaving investors without the regulatory catalyst many had expected to support digital assets during the summer.

Technical structure favors recovery if XRP holds above key support

The daily chart shows XRP stabilizing just above its 20-day simple moving average near $1.05 after briefly slipping below the psychologically important $1.10 level. Although price remains beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages clustered between $1.17 and $1.46, the 20-day average has flattened, while Chaikin Money Flow has climbed back above zero, suggesting capital has started returning after several weeks of distribution.

The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive setup. XRP has reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1.076 and is attempting to establish support around the 0.5 retracement at $1.097.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has nearly returned to positive territory as the MACD and signal lines converge, while the RSI has rebounded toward 42 after printing higher lows despite price registering fresh local lows. That bullish divergence closely aligns with descending-channel breakout thesis.

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