Bernstein Extends the Memory Market Outlook

Bernstein Extends the Memory Market Outlook

Wall Street investment bank Bernstein has released its latest global storage industry report with a clear conclusion: the semiconductor memory bull market is far from over. According to the firm's analysis, the current upcycle is expected to continue through at least 2027, contradicting the view that memory stocks have already reached their peak after the remarkable gains recorded during the first half of 2026.

DRAM and NAND Prices Continue Accelerating

The report highlights continued strength across every major memory segment. DRAM contract prices moved higher again in June, with traditional DRAM expected to record an approximately 74% increase in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026.

Other key projections include:

- Server DRAM: Expected to rise 60% to 67%
- Mobile DRAM: Approaching an 80% price increase
- PC DRAM Spot Prices: Increased 5.6% to 11.5% during June
- Server DRAM Spot Prices: Rose 6.1% to 26.4%
- NAND Contract Prices: Forecast to climb 65% to 70% quarter-over-quarter, supported primarily by strong SSD and mobile NAND demand.

These figures suggest that pricing momentum remains firmly intact across both enterprise and consumer memory markets.

HBM4 Becomes Even More Valuable

One of the report's most significant forecasts focuses on HBM4, the advanced memory technology powering next-generation AI accelerators.

Bernstein projects HBM4 pricing to increase from approximately $16.6 per GB today to around $37 per GB by 2027, representing more than a twofold increase.

The impact becomes even more striking when applied to Nvidia's Vera Rubin NVL72 platform. Each rack contains approximately:

- 20.7 TB of HBM4
- 54 TB of LPDDR5X

At current pricing, the memory content alone exceeds $2 million per rack. Based on Bernstein's 2027 forecast, that memory cost would nearly double, translating into an estimated 435% increase in memory value per rack within a single product cycle.

Semiconductor Leaders Continue to Benefit

Bernstein also raised its outlook for ASML, upgrading the company to Outperform while increasing its price target from $935 to $1,528. The firm now identifies ASML as its top European semiconductor equipment pick for 2026.

Meanwhile, profitability expectations for SK Hynix continue improving:

- Q2 2026 DRAM Gross Margin: 90.9%
- Q4 2026 DRAM Gross Margin Forecast: 92.7%

These projections reflect the exceptionally strong pricing environment currently supporting advanced memory manufacturers.

Supply Constraints Remain a Key Driver

Demand is not the only factor supporting higher prices. According to Bernstein, memory manufacturers have already sold out their 2026 production capacity, while meaningful new supply is not expected to enter the market until 2027.

Adding further support to the bullish outlook, UBS has doubled its own DRAM price forecast and now expects supply constraints to persist until Q2 2028, reinforcing expectations that the industry's favorable pricing cycle may continue well beyond current market assumptions.

Final Perspective

Bernstein's latest research suggests that the semiconductor memory industry remains in the early stages of a longer-term expansion rather than approaching its peak. Strong AI infrastructure demand, tight supply conditions, rising HBM adoption, and improving manufacturer profitability continue to support the view that the memory bull market still has significant room to run through 2027 and potentially beyond.

#BernsteinSaysMemoryBullMarketToLastUntil2027
@Gate_Square