* The domestic June CPI fell year-on-year to 1%, slightly below expectations, and core CPI also slowed to 1%. PPI rose year-on-year to 4.1%, likely the highest point of the year, but month-on-month it turned negative to -0.3%, mainly due to the rapid drop in oil prices. After excluding energy and AI-related industries, PPI turned negative year-on-year to -0.3%, and the pattern of weak domestic demand persisted. * The U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year; AI and energy additionally contributed 0.39% and 0.08% respectively, explaining all of the upward movement in inflation. The AI transmission coefficient is far greater than that of energy. The impact of energy is concentrated in the transportation sector, making it more of a one-off shock. * The AI industry has clearly boosted domestic exports, investment, and the profits of industrial enterprises, but it has not provided sufficient transmission efficiency to consumption. If AI enthusiasm slightly cools at the margin, the support for economic growth will significantly weaken, increasing the necessity of stabilizing-growth policies, since the consumption fundamentals remain in a weak reality phase in the short term.

SnapshotLaborer

2026-07-09 15:20:20

Abstract generation in progress

The domestic June CPI fell year-on-year to 1%, slightly below expectations, and core CPI also slowed to 1%. PPI rose year-on-year to 4.1%, likely the highest point of the year, but month-on-month it turned negative to -0.3%, mainly due to the rapid drop in oil prices. After excluding energy and AI-related industries, PPI turned negative year-on-year to -0.3%, and the pattern of weak domestic demand persisted.
The U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year; AI and energy additionally contributed 0.39% and 0.08% respectively, explaining all of the upward movement in inflation. The AI transmission coefficient is far greater than that of energy. The impact of energy is concentrated in the transportation sector, making it more of a one-off shock.
The AI industry has clearly boosted domestic exports, investment, and the profits of industrial enterprises, but it has not provided sufficient transmission efficiency to consumption. If AI enthusiasm slightly cools at the margin, the support for economic growth will significantly weaken, increasing the necessity of stabilizing-growth policies, since the consumption fundamentals remain in a weak reality phase in the short term.

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Energy pullback and AI divergence are driving domestic inflation in China. AI and energy are pushing up the US core CPI; AI supports China’s macro environment, but consumption transmission remains weak --- 0709 Macro Digest

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