📈 $BTC ‌📊 Spot Price (Evening of 2026/07/09)

• BTC/USD: Approximately $62,730 - $62,815, up +1.2% ~ +1.4% in 24h

• 24h Range: $61,540 - $63,280

• Market Cap: Approximately $1.26 trillion | Circulating Supply: 20.05M / 21M

• Historical Range (Past Year): $57,832 (low) - $126,186 (all-time high, Oct 2025)

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Recent Trend Review

1. Early May peak and pullback: From the May high of ~78K, it pulled back all the way, touched a cycle low of ~59K in early June, then started a rebound

2. Mid-June rebound stalled: It rebounded to around 67K but failed to break through the strong resistance zone of 65-67K, then entered low-volume consolidation

3. Early July second retest: On 7/8, it broke below 63K, bottoming around 61,700. On 7/9, intraday recovery pushed it back above 62,800

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Key 🎯 Technical Levels (Daily/4H)

Direction Price Description
Strong Resistance 65,000 - 65,750 Daily 50EMA + supply zone; only a breakout above can turn bullish
Short-term Resistance 63,300 (weekly level) / 62,850 (SNR) Current bulls vs bears battleground
Key Support 61,500 - 61,300 Important daily defense line
Strong Support 58,000 - 59k June low / long-term accumulation zone

Indicator Status:

• Daily RSI ~48-53 (neutral), MACD still below zero line but not expanding further

• Price temporarily above the 4H MA200, but daily still under pressure from the 50EMA (around 65,600) 📰

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Fundamentals/News

• Fed: The July 28-29 meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%; market focuses on the June CPI released on July 14 (inflation easing expectations support risk assets)

• ETF Flows: Recent periodic net inflows, but Coinbase premium remains weak; US spot buying hasn't fully recovered

• Macro Linkage: Weakening USD + falling oil prices, short-term positive for crypto risk appetite, but stablecoin (USDT/USDC) market cap has slightly contracted in the past 30 days, limited incremental capital

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Short-term Judgment

Currently in a high-level consolidation after the 59K rebound; the "rebound → retest → retry" structure remains:

• ✅ Hold support at 61,300-61,500 → likely to retest 63,300 / 65,000

• ⚠️ Daily close below 61K → look down to 58-59K support zone

• 📌 A mid-term trend reversal requires a weekly close above 65-67K to confirm; otherwise, still range-bound 💡