Bitcoin held above 62,000 amid the firing—what does this “downside resilience test” mean?

In the past few days, the crypto market has gone through an interesting stress test. The situation between the U.S. and Iran suddenly escalated: Trump announced that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding had been “terminated,” the U.S. military launched a new round of strikes on Iran, and Brent crude oil rose by more than 7% at one point and broke above $80. According to the playbook from the past, with a geopolitical shock of this level, Bitcoin should have dropped by at least 5%. But what happened instead? BTC was hammered down to around 62,000 at its lowest, then rebounded quickly, recouping nearly all losses within 24 hours.

Bitcoin is being repriced as an “interest rate asset”

Some analysts point out that the market no longer prices Middle East risk as something unique to crypto, but has started to price it as an interest-rate event. The transmission chain is clear: an oil price shock → inflation expectations heat up → expectations for a Fed rate hike are pulled forward. Yet Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been smaller and smaller each time. Since February, each round of escalation between the U.S. and Iran has had a diminishing impact on Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation concerns have intensified. A small number of officials supported a June rate hike, and the AI investment boom was even listed as one of the three major inflation risks. In money markets, bets on the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike moved forward from December to October. Theoretically, rising rate-hike expectations are bearish for risk assets, but Bitcoin only fell by less than 2% and held steady.

Two on-chain signals support the bullish logic

First, exchange balances have fallen to multi-year lows. Large amounts of BTC and ETH are moving from trading platforms to institutional custody, ETFs, and on-chain use cases, shrinking the supply available for direct trading. Second, in the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network were $331 million: long liquidations were $261 million, while short liquidations were only $69.48 million. After long leverage was wiped out, the market structure has become healthier.

ETH: A more elastic follow-the-leader journey

ETH rebounded quickly from early selloffs and stayed relatively stable above $1,730. Over the past 7 days, Ethereum has still risen by about 5.7%, outperforming Bitcoin.

Right now, both BTC and ETH are in critical support zones: $62,000 for BTC and $1,700 for ETH are short-term turning points. Geopolitics and the macro backdrop are still resonating, but the market’s reaction to this round of shocks is quietly changing Bitcoin’s risk-pricing logic. If BTC can hold $62,000 amid the gunfire, then the story that funds rotate out of traditional safe-haven assets will have its first proof. $BTC $ETH #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束