Bitcoin bottom-fishing time? Glassnode: BTC trapped in five-month 'deep discount', 3 major signals to watch for bull market return

Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom? According to the latest weekly report released today (July 8) by renowned on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has remained in a "deep value zone" for five consecutive months, below multiple key cost supports. However, long-term holders (LTH) selling at a loss of up to $280 million per day, coupled with persistently sluggish institutional buying through ETFs, indicates that the market is still in the "bottom-building phase" of the late bear market, with a full reversal yet to be confirmed.

(Previous recap: Anti-crypto indicator Dave Portnoy: "As soon as I sell Bitcoin, it pumps! This time, even if it goes to zero, I won't sell")
(Background supplement: BlackRock bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin in two days! Ending two consecutive weeks of selling)

Table of Contents

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• Five-Month Deep Discount, Long-Term Holders' "Loss-Cutting" Hits Record
• Institutional Buying Weak, ETF Outflows Ease but Not Stopped
• Derivatives Market De-Risking, Three Final Confirmation Signals for the Bottom

Amidst geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and the tug-of-war over U.S. monetary policy, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen into a prolonged consolidation range in the middle of this year. The question most concerning investors is: when will the market bottom?

According to the Week On-chain report (Issue 27) released by authoritative on-chain data firm Glassnode on July 8, 2026, Bitcoin's current on-chain and macro structure indicates that the market is in a typical "bottom-building" process, but it still lacks the final catalyst for a true bullish reversal.

Five-Month Deep Discount, Long-Term Holders' "Loss-Cutting" Hits Record

The report first points out that although Bitcoin briefly rebounded from $58,300 to $64,400 this week, the spot price remains significantly below two key cost lines: the True Market Mean (approx. $76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis, approx. $72,200).

Since early February 2026, BTC has been trading below these cost levels for five consecutive months, a relatively rare "deep value zone" in history. Glassnode states that this phase of accumulation below the cost basis is typically a critical period for cyclical bottom formation, highly attractive to value investors; however, the possibility of a further decline to $53,000 (Realized Price support) cannot be ruled out.

The biggest downward pressure currently facing the market comes from the capitulation selling of long-term holders (LTH). Data shows that the proportion of LTH realized losses as a percentage of total realized value (30-day moving average) has surged from 15% in early February to 43%. These investors, who bought at the previous cycle's highs, have seen recent daily realized losses as high as $280 million, the highest since December 2022. Glassnode warns that until the LTH selling wave cools significantly, every market rebound could face heavy pressure.

Institutional Buying Weak, ETF Outflows Ease but Not Stopped

Regarding off-chain data, the capital flows of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also reflect institutional caution. Since mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs have turned to net outflows. Although recent daily net outflows have eased from the peak of $193 million in early June to $88.9 million, the overall situation remains "bleeding."

Additionally, the daily trading volume of ETFs (30-day moving average) has shrunk to a range of $650 million to $950 million, plummeting by approximately 80% from the peak in October 2025. This indicates that institutional confidence has not yet clearly returned, and the market needs to see "volume expansion" combined with "compression of net outflows" to confirm a genuine recovery in institutional demand.

Derivatives Market De-Risking, Three Final Confirmation Signals for the Bottom

Fortunately, the derivatives market has already shown healthy signs of de-risking. The Put/Call Ratio has dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, indicating that market panic premiums are fading. However, traders still maintain a defensive skew on the options surface, willing to pay hedging costs for downside risk.

Combining the macroeconomic level (U.S. M2 money supply hitting a record high of $22.8 trillion, but the Fed continuing to shrink its balance sheet), Glassnode concludes that the market is currently in the late bear market phase, with conditions for bottom-building already in place. However, to confirm a restart of the bull market, the following three key signals must simultaneously materialize:

2. Long-term holder (LTH) loss-taking pressure must continue to cool.
3. Spot ETF outflows must stabilize, and institutional trading volume must recover.
4. Bitcoin's spot price must firmly reclaim the True Market Mean of $76,600.