Technical Outlook: Solana Attempts Recovery, but Bears Still Control the Longer-Term Trend

​Solana is stabilizing after holding the macro support zone around $61.21. The price has reclaimed the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, attempting to establish acceptance above the recent consolidation range. However, SOL is still trading below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA, indicating that the broader market structure remains bearish despite the recovery bounce. The RSI has recovered into bullish territory above the neutral 50 level, signaling improving short-term momentum.
​📈 EMA Structure (Short-Term Recovery within a Bearish Trend)
​20 EMA: $76.72
​50 EMA: $76.73
​100 EMA: $81.49
​200 EMA: $95.92
​SOL is trading slightly above the 20 and 50 EMA, indicating improving short-term momentum.
​The 50 EMA ($76.73) has been reclaimed, but a solid daily close above it is key to confirming a stronger recovery.
​The 100 EMA ($81.49) and 200 EMA ($95.92) remain significant overhead resistance.
​👉 Buyers have regained short-term control, but the higher time frame trend remains bearish until SOL reclaims the 100 and 200 EMA.
​📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure
​Solana remains well below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $111.18, confirming the macro bearish structure is still intact.
​Buyers continue to defend the support zone at $61.21 after the recent liquidity sweep.
​Price is attempting to reclaim nearby resistance around $79.06–$80.51, where a successful breakout could trigger a move toward the 100 EMA.
​Bullish Targets:
​$79.06
​$80.51
​$81.49 (100 EMA)
​$95.92 (200 EMA)
​Bearish Scenario:
​Losing the $76.72–$76.73 cluster (20/50 EMA) would weaken the current recovery.
​A breakdown below local support could expose the macro demand zone at $61.21.
​🧠 ICT / Smart Money View
​Solana has swept sell-side liquidity below the recent June low ($61.21) and is attempting to reclaim short-term buy-side liquidity.
​Price is trading around a local Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $80.51 while testing local resistance, where sellers may look to defend their positions.
​A confirmed Market Structure Shift (MSS) followed by a sustained daily close above the 100 EMA ($81.49) would significantly increase the probability of a larger bullish reversal.
​📉 RSI Momentum
​RSI (14): 54.94
​RSI has recovered sharply from previous lows and has crossed above the neutral 50 level to 54.94.
​Sustaining above 50–60 would strengthen the bullish case, while a rejection back below 50 would indicate sellers still dominate momentum.
​📊 Key Levels
​🔴 Resistance
​$79.06
​$80.51
​$81.49 (100 EMA)
​$95.92 (200 EMA)
​🟢 Support
​$76.97
​$76.73 (50 EMA)
​$76.72 (20 EMA)
​$61.21
​📌 Final Outlook
​Solana is showing early signs of recovery after holding its main demand zone and reclaiming the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. While short-term momentum is improving, the overall market structure remains bearish as long as SOL trades below its higher time frame moving averages.
​✅ Holding above $76.72 keeps the short-term recovery scenario intact.
​✅ A breakout and daily close above $80.51 could accelerate upward momentum toward $81.49 and $95.92.
​❌ Losing the 20/50 EMA cluster would invalidate the recovery setup and increase the probability of another move toward the $61.21 support zone.
​Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish (Short-Term). Solana is attempting to build a recovery rally, but confirmation of a higher time frame trend reversal requires a decisive break and sustained hold above the 100 EMA ($81.49), 200 EMA ($95.92), and the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
$SOL