#世界杯冠军预测 Why so many "last-gasp winners" at the 2026 World Cup?

Argentina beat Egypt 3-2 with a stoppage-time goal. Whether the referee favored Argentina sparked huge controversy, with "Argentina dirty" even trending. Putting the controversy aside, another "stoppage-time winner" made many feel that this might be a major feature of this World Cup.

Of course, before asking "why", we need to see "if it is".

Guancha.cn found that there were multiple stoppage-time goals in the group stage.

Turkey beat the US 3-2, scoring the winner in the 8th minute of stoppage time. Germany beat Côte d'Ivoire 2-1, scoring in the 4th minute of stoppage time.

Ghana beat Panama 1-0, scoring in the 5th minute of stoppage time.

Qatar and Switzerland drew 1-1, with Switzerland's Mouhammed scoring an own goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.

In Austria vs Algeria, a goal in the 6th minute of stoppage time secured a late equalizer.

Also, Côte d'Ivoire beat Ecuador 1-0 with a goal in the 90th minute.

Japan held the Netherlands to a 2-2 draw with a goal in the 89th minute.

Senegal lost 2-3 to Norway, pulling one back in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. If these three are not counted, and only strictly defined stoppage-time goals that changed the result are considered, then there were 5 such cases in 72 group-stage matches, accounting for 6.9%.

In the 2022 World Cup, which was smaller with only 48 group-stage matches, Guancha.cn found 3 similar cases, accounting for 6.2%: Iran beat Wales 2-0 with very long stoppage time, scoring in the 8th and 10th minutes. Brazil lost 0-1 to Cameroon in a shock, conceding in the 2nd minute of stoppage time. The last match was also an upset, with Portugal conceding in the 1st minute of stoppage time and losing 1-2 to South Korea. Assuming 5 minutes of stoppage time each half, and considering that goals in first-half stoppage time are not counted as winners, the period where a winner could occur is the second-half stoppage time of 5 minutes, which is 5% of the 100-minute match.

So the proportion of winners in the group stage was not exaggerated, just slightly high. But in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, the situation changed dramatically.

Canada beat South Africa 1-0 in the 90+2 minute. Morocco equalized 1-1 against the Netherlands in the 90+1 minute and eventually eliminated them. Portugal scored in the 90+4 minute to beat Croatia 2-1. Belgium was once two goals down against Senegal, but pulled two back in the 86th and 89th minutes. In extra time, in the 117th minute, an opponent committed a foul, and after VAR confirmed a penalty, Tielemans scored in the 5th minute of stoppage time. Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the 90+6 minute. Spain eliminated Portugal 1-0 with a goal in the 1st minute of stoppage time. Finally, Argentina came back from 3-0 down to beat Egypt, with the last goal scored in the 3rd minute of stoppage time.

Again, using strict criteria: not counting Norway's elimination of Côte d'Ivoire and England's elimination of DR Congo (both Europe vs Africa, both 2-1, both goals in the 86th minute)... and not counting Neymar's penalty in the 90+10 minute when Brazil lost to Norway, as it did not change the result. This means in the first two rounds of 24 knockout matches, there were 7 cases of last-gasp winners or equalizers, exceeding the number in the group stage, with a proportion as high as 29.2%.

What about 2022? After the group stage, it was the round of 16, so including the third-place match, there were only 16 knockout matches. The only stoppage-time "winner" or "equalizer" was the Netherlands vs Argentina quarterfinal. The Netherlands equalized 2-2 against Argentina in the 10th minute of stoppage time, forcing extra time. Although they lost on penalties, it still counts as a stoppage-time equalizer. In 2022, the proportion in the knockout stage was 1/16, roughly equivalent to 3/48 in the group stage. So the stoppage-time winners and equalizers in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage are indeed quite unusual.

It should be said that the increase in "last-gasp winners" does have objective reasons. The teams entering the knockout stage are closer in strength than before, and have strong willingness and ability to fight to the last moment to decide the outcome. For example, Morocco, who beat the Netherlands this time, reached the semifinals in 2022, becoming the first African team to reach the last four. They are now ranked 6th, while the Netherlands are only 9th. Egypt's performance against Argentina was seen by the whole world, and they are now ranked 24th. The two other African teams that conceded goals in the 86th minute, leaving little time—Côte d'Ivoire and DR Congo—are also strong. And with similar technical levels, the physical exhaustion of both sides will be greater, making the gap more likely to explode at the last moment.

In 2020, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) increased the number of substitutions from three to five per match. But initially, teams might not have been used to making good use of the extra quota, especially for strengthening the attack and going all out. By this edition, they may have applied the experience gained over the years, allowing more substitutes to storm the opponent's defense. Belgium's Lukaku, Brazil's Martinelli, and Portugal's Ramos all came off the bench to score key goals. This also reflects the advantage of stronger teams in bench depth—although strength is closer, they still have a thicker foundation and more options.

Among the stoppage-time winners and equalizers in this edition, only Turkey over the US (currently ranked 27 vs 16), Ghana over Panama (65 vs 44) were upsets with the weaker team winning, and Qatar drew with Switzerland (59 vs 14), all in the group stage. In the knockout stage, even strong teams have to fight to the end, and the bench gap becomes more apparent. Also, the precise stoppage time policy has been implemented since the 2022 World Cup, and four years later, it is certainly more refined, with ultra-long stoppage times (7+ minutes) becoming more common. This relatively minor change may explain why the proportion of stoppage-time winners in the group stage rose from 6.2% in 2022 to 6.9% this year. But the 29.2% in the knockout stage is still extremely rare.

The well-known sports data platform Opta once released data for the 2025-2026 Premier League season. In this world-class high-intensity league, 14.3% of matches were decided by "last-gasp winners" after the 90th minute, more than double any other season (previous high was 7.1%). So there is indeed a trend of increasing "last-gasp winners" in football, but the current proportion in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage is "more than double" that of the 2025-2026 Premier League. Even if none of the remaining 8 matches have winners or equalizers, the proportion would still be 21.9%, half higher than the Premier League.

Perhaps this is the charm of this World Cup's knockout stage—it's all about the thrill. Can you find another explanation?