$4,109 for $XAU —are you still waiting for safe-haven demand?

First, look at the surface: the more chaotic geopolitics gets, the more gold falls
In the past 24 hours, gold prices have been wildly fluctuating between 4,054 and 4,118. From the historical high in January of 5,602, it has dropped—an accumulated decline of over 27%.
Gold is experiencing one of the strangest markets in nearly a decade: when it should be rising, it’s falling.
First: the safe-haven logic has failed—what happened?
On Wednesday, Trump publicly announced that the temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran is “void.” The U.S. military launched another round of strikes on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards attacked U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has “basically stopped.”
According to textbooks, gold should surge—right?
What happened instead? Oil jumped by more than 7%, while gold plunged straight down, at one point falling to $4,021.
Because what the market fears now isn’t war itself—it’s the inflation war would trigger. When oil rises, inflation expectations spike. The Fed is forced to hike—gold doesn’t pay interest, and in a high-rate environment it’s basically junk.
Second: the Fed minutes turned hawkish—will the September rate hike be set in stone?
In the early hours of July 9 (Beijing time), the Fed released the minutes of the June FOMC meeting.
The core message is basically three points:
First, a minority of policymakers clearly supported a rate hike.
Second, of the 18 decision-makers, 9 expect at least one more hike by year-end.
Third, inflation is far above target and still worsening.
After the minutes were released, market expectations for a September hike surged to 70%-75%.
High interest rates are gold’s biggest enemy. The more hawkish the Fed, the more gold falls. That’s it—simple.
Third: money is moving—ETFs are withdrawing at scale
According to the World Gold Council: in June, global gold ETFs saw net outflows of $8.9 billion, and assets under management fell 13% to $526 billion.
In the second quarter, gold prices dropped 14%, the largest quarterly decline in history.
Key levels
Resistance above: 4,123 → 4,133 → 4,255 → 4,491 (200-day moving average)
Support below: 4,050-4,075 → 4,000 (the line between life and death) → 3,941 → 3,812
For short-term traders:
If you pull back to around 4,050-4,075, try a small long position with a stop-loss below 4,020. First target: 4,123-4,150; if it breaks, look for 4,200+.
For swing traders:
Wait for the daily close to hold above 4,123 before considering adding more. 4,100-4,110 is the key near-term watershed—if it holds above that, bulls have a chance; if it doesn’t, 4,000 will likely be tested again.
For long-term believers:
Set up staggered buys below 4,000. The 3,800-4,000 range is the zone with long- and mid-term allocation value.
#GUSDYieldRisesto3.8% #PredictWorldCup🇫🇷vs🇲🇦