1. Meeting minutes unexpectedly hawkish, rate cut expectations completely dashed

The June Fed meeting minutes showed that officials' stance has shifted from a dovish bias to two-way neutrality, with both rate hikes and cuts equally on the table. Among the 18 participants, 9 explicitly supported a rate hike this year, and some officials even believed that the June meeting itself provided grounds for a hike — far more hawkish than the market's previous consensus for a rate cut this year.

2. Inflation stickiness repriced, three new drivers emerge
For the first time, the minutes included AI infrastructure investment as a core driver of inflation. Combined with the ongoing transmission effects of tariffs and the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushing up energy costs, the difficulty of bringing inflation down has increased. The duration of high interest rates will be significantly longer than previously estimated.

3. July CPI becomes key turning point, probability of September rate hike rises
The market's next observation window is the CPI data in mid-July. If inflation exceeds expectations again, the probability of resuming rate hikes in September will rise significantly, and the policy path faces further tightening risks.

4. Asset divergence pattern continues: US stock sector rotation, A-share structural independence
· In US stocks, computing hardware and energy sectors benefit relatively, while traditional blue-chip stocks come under pressure.
· In A-shares, export chains, high dividend yields, and domestic computing power tracks have stronger external independence, while foreign-fund-heavy consumer and real estate chains remain constrained by external liquidity. Overall, structural divergence will continue.