U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses: Will Oil Prices Take Off Again? Global Capital Has Already Given Its Answer

After Trump announced the end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, global markets almost simultaneously entered risk-off mode. International oil prices surged sharply, gold halted its decline and rebounded, U.S. stocks faced pressure during the session, and the crypto market saw a broad correction. The initial reaction of capital makes one thing clear—what capital fears is not just war, but the uncertainty of energy supply.

The Middle East has always been the core region of the global energy market. Any reversal in the situation will trigger rapid fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Once transportation is affected, not only will oil prices rise, but global logistics, manufacturing, and even aviation transport costs will be impacted in a chain reaction, eventually feeding into inflation data.

For global central banks, this is clearly not good news. The market had originally expected further monetary policy easing in the future, but if energy prices continue to rise and inflationary pressures re-emerge, the pace of interest rate cuts may be affected again. This is also why global risk assets collectively came under pressure after the announcement.

At the same time, gold has once again become a safe haven for capital. Every time a major geopolitical event occurs, gold receives significant safe-haven capital allocation, while the U.S. dollar index usually strengthens in tandem. This combination means that global capital is entering a defensive stance rather than actively taking on risk.

Of course, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Market sentiment often moves faster than the event itself. If the two sides return to the negotiating table later, oil prices could quickly retreat, and stock markets may see a technical rebound. Therefore, investors should neither panic-sell nor ignore risks due to short-term rebounds.

In the coming weeks, the key variable determining market direction remains the development of the Middle East situation. If the conflict escalates, the energy sector may continue to benefit; if a diplomatic breakthrough emerges, tech stocks and crypto assets might regain capital attention.

The capital market will never tell you the answer in advance, but prices have already begun to express their stance. The more volatile this period becomes, the more rational judgment is needed, instead of being led by emotions. #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束