QCP's latest report points out that although the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 57k in June, far below the expected 110k, it still failed to change the Fed's policy stance. With wage growth holding at 3.5% and M2 money supply reaching a record $23.05 trillion, inflation remains the main constraint on the Fed's rate cuts. The report emphasizes that as the Fed's monetary policy "cushion" is missing, physical buffers across various markets are rapidly drying up: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to its lowest level since 1983; Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time to pay dividends; meanwhile, redemption requests for eight semi-liquid private credit funds have hit the 5% limit threshold. QCP's analysis suggests that oil, crypto, and credit markets are showing synchronized weakness, and the market is waiting for further financial stress tests to see where the first "crack" will appear.

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