#世界杯冠军预测 Why Are There So Many "Injury-Time Winners" at the 2026 World Cup?

Argentina defeated Egypt 3-2 with a goal in stoppage time. Whether the referee favored Argentina has sparked huge controversy, with "Argentina Dirty" even trending. Setting aside the debate, another "injury-time winner" has led many to feel this might indeed be a hallmark of this World Cup.

Of course, before asking "why," we must first check "if."

Guancha.cn found multiple stoppage-time goals in the group stage.

Turkey beat the USA 3-2 with a goal in the 8th minute of stoppage time. Germany beat Ivory Coast 2-1 with a goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.

Ghana beat Panama 1-0 with a goal in the 5th minute of stoppage time.

Qatar drew 1-1 with Switzerland after Switzerland's Muhaim scored an own goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.

Austria vs. Algeria saw a goal in the 6th minute of stoppage time to equalize.

In addition, Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 with a goal in the 90th minute.

Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands with a goal in the 89th minute.

Senegal lost 2-3 to Norway, pulling one back in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. Excluding these three, only counting strict stoppage-time goals that changed the outcome, there were 5 examples in 72 group matches, a rate of 6.9%.

At the 2022 World Cup, which was smaller with only 48 group matches, Guancha.cn found 3 similar cases, a rate of 6.2%: Iran beat Wales 2-0 with goals in the 8th and 10th minutes of stoppage time. Brazil lost 0-1 to Cameroon with a goal conceded in the 2nd minute of stoppage time. In the final group match, Portugal conceded in the 1st minute of stoppage time, losing 1-2 to South Korea. Assuming five minutes of stoppage time per half, and that first-half stoppage goals aren't considered winners, the period for potential winners is the 5 minutes of second-half stoppage time, or about 5% of the 100-minute game.

Thus, the proportion of winners in the group stage is not exaggerated, just slightly above average. But in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, the situation changed drastically.

Canada beat South Africa 1-0 in the 90+2 minute. Morocco drew 1-1 with the Netherlands in the 90+1 minute and eventually eliminated them. Portugal scored in the 90+4 minute to beat Croatia 2-1. Belgium, trailing Senegal by two goals, scored in the 86th and 89th minutes. In the 117th minute of extra time, a foul by the opponent led to a penalty after VAR review, and Tielemans scored in the 5th minute of stoppage time. Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the 90+6 minute. Spain eliminated Portugal 1-0 with a goal in the 1st minute of stoppage time. Finally, Argentina overturned a three-goal deficit to eliminate Egypt, with the last goal scored in the 3rd minute of stoppage time.

Again using strict criteria: excluding Norway's elimination of Ivory Coast and England's elimination of DR Congo (both Africa vs. Europe, both 2-1, both goals in the 86th minute), and also excluding Brazil's penalty by Neymar in the 90+10 minute against Norway (it didn't change the outcome), then in the first two rounds of 24 knockout matches, there were 7 winners or equalizers. That's more than in the group stage, reaching a staggering 29.2%.

What about 2022? The group stage produced 16 teams, so the knockout stage (including the third-place match) had only 16 matches. The only stoppage-time "winner" or "equalizer" was the Netherlands vs. Argentina quarterfinal. The Netherlands equalized 2-2 in the 10th minute of stoppage time to force extra time. Though they lost on penalties, it qualifies as a stoppage-time equalizer. The proportion of 1/16 in the 2022 knockout stage roughly matched 3/48 in the group stage. So the stoppage-time winners and equalizers in the 2026 knockout stage are truly unusual. It should be said that the increase in winners does have objective reasons. Teams that reach the knockout stage are more closely matched in strength, with stronger will and ability to fight to the last minute. For example, Morocco, which beat the Netherlands this time, reached the semifinals in 2022, the first African team to do so. They are now ranked 6th, while the Netherlands is 9th. Egypt's performance against Argentina was clear to all; they are ranked 24th. Ivory Coast and DR Congo, the two other African teams that conceded in the 86th minute, are also strong. With similar technical levels, physical exhaustion is greater, and differences are more likely to emerge at the end.

In 2020, IFAB increased the number of substitutions per match from three to five. But teams may not have adapted well initially to using the extra substitutions, especially for strengthening attacks and taking risks. By this tournament, they may have applied lessons learned over the years, sending on more substitutes to challenge defenses. Belgium's Lukaku, Brazil's Martinelli, and Portugal's Ramos all scored key goals as substitutes. This also reflects the advantage of strong teams' bench depth: although strength is closer, they have deeper foundations and more options.

Among this tournament's stoppage-time winners and equalizers, only Turkey over the USA (ranked 27 vs. 16), Ghana over Panama (65 vs. 44) as upsets, and Qatar's draw with Switzerland (59 vs. 14) occurred in the group stage. In the knockout stage, strong teams also fight to the end, and the bench gap is more fully exposed. Additionally, the precise stoppage-time policy introduced at the 2022 World Cup is surely better implemented four years later, and longer stoppage time (7+ minutes) is more "generously" given. This small change might explain why the proportion of stoppage-time winners in the group stage rose from 6.2% in 2022 to 6.9% this year. But the 29.2% in the knockout stage is still extremely rare.

The well-known sports data platform Opta released data for the 2025-26 Premier League season. In this world-class high-intensity league, 14.3% of matches were decided by goals scored after the 90th minute, more than double any previous season (previously max 7.1%). Clearly, football does see a trend of more last-minute winners, but the current proportion of winners in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage is "more than double" that of the 2025-26 Premier League. Even if none of the remaining 8 matches produce a winner or equalizer, the proportion would still be 21.9%, half higher than the Premier League.

Perhaps this is the charm of this World Cup's knockout stage — it's all about the thrill. Can you find another explanation?