Originally, I thought BTC would plunge due to the war, but I didn't expect such a quick recovery. After looking at a lot of fund flow and news-related content, I'll summarize my personal views:

Today's rally during the Asian session, I'm more inclined to interpret it as sentiment repair combined with short covering, rather than the sudden disappearance of macro risks.

Last night, the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, with crude oil surging. The market had initially feared that BTC would follow risk assets and keep falling.

But the actual move was that BTC, with negative news continuously being released, did not trigger new panic selling.

This suggests that the funds that needed to sell had already been partially released earlier, and the market has started to show a degree of "bearish numbness" toward the Middle East conflict.

After the Asian session opened, the price did not continue lower. Short-term shorts found it hard to push down further, so some positions began to take profit and cover.

Short covering itself creates upward momentum.

On top of that, BTC had already undergone a period of consecutive adjustments, bringing the price back to a level where some capital was willing to step in. Asian funds then took the opportunity to do a round of repair.

But not falling does not mean the risk is over; a rebound does not mean the trend has reversed. #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束