The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously held interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% during its June 16-17 meeting, marking the seventh consecutive pause since last December. However, this time the minutes included artificial intelligence-related investments in the discussion of inflation and the economic outlook for the first time.

The minutes outlined two possible paths: if inflation remains persistently high, most officials lean toward maintaining high rates or even considering further tightening; if inflation returns to the 2% target more quickly, the same group supports keeping the current rate unchanged. A minority initially advocated for an immediate rate hike but ultimately followed the collective decision.

Highlighting AI investments separately actually acknowledges that the technology cycle has begun to influence prices: on one hand, the long-term story of productivity gains; on the other, the potential new inflation from short-term computing power, electricity, and capital expenditures. Beyond traditional factors like wages, rent, and energy, there is now an unpredictable new variable going forward.

Going forward, inflation data and the pace of AI investment are likely to become key variables influencing the rate path. In this "fully data-dependent" wait-and-see mode, markets need to be more cautious in interpreting each wave of technological hype, and should not jump to conclusions about how long the high-rate environment will persist.