2026-7-9

The rebound came as expected, but it looks like it was driven by news. What happened around 11:00? Looking at the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, they both started bouncing at roughly the same time, pulling up the storage sector along with them — quite a "decisive counterattack" vibe.

But you can't get too excited too early, because it's still a top-and-bottom pattern. We need a pullback to form a higher low to confirm the bullish trend, for example, a retracement to 623 or 625 to create a new bottom. The resistance levels above are still 630, 633, and 638/639.

I don't regret buying too little yesterday, because the drop wasn't deep enough. Only a few altcoins went deep (SUI, TRUMP, WLD), and I added a small position. I won't add a large position until there's a volume-driven sell-off.

It's not like I haven't done the whole "full margin, high leverage, catching the wick" gambling thing before 😂. I did it a lot in 2024. Not saying I didn't make any money — I did make some. But making money was just the process. When you're heavily positioned, you always try to squeeze out more, but you end up not getting it because of repeated drawdowns and losing your nerve. Later I did hold, but every time I would be up tens of thousands of USDT and not take profit, only to get stopped out at breakeven. After several rounds of that, I got tilted, and by the end of the year I lost more than 90% of my principal in one go. Then I had only a few thousand USDT left, and it took me over a year and a half to climb back. Now I won't do anything that stupid no matter what. I'll just play it slow — if I can make some, good; if not, I'll wait for opportunities. I'll never go full margin again. Just playing spot with a small position is fine — calm mindset, no anxiety.

I hope it can hold at 627-626, so that the probability of breaking upward past 633 and reaching 635 increases. If the pullback can use 630 as a bottom, it could still move higher. Today is the 9th. If a proper retracement is going to happen, I'd prefer it to be after mid-month.