Trump trapped in Iran conflict dilemma: ceasefire setback again, midterm elections and inflation pressure heat up simultaneously

Mars Finance News, July 9 - As a new round of military conflict erupts between the US and Iran, Trump's plan to extricate himself from the Iran conflict has been blocked again. Analysts believe that with the ceasefire agreement fragile and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remaining tense, Trump is facing triple pressure from diplomacy, energy, and elections. The US had previously reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil sales, while Iran launched retaliatory strikes against US military bases. Divergences over control of the Strait of Hormuz have become the core trigger for the escalation of the conflict.

Market sources pointed out that with only months until the US midterm elections, rising energy prices are increasing inflationary pressure in the US and becoming a significant political risk for Trump. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34%, returning to a low point in his second term. Although Trump still says the conflict will "end soon," many analysts believe it is difficult for him to force Iran to make concessions through military action or achieve a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations. The future situation may remain in a state of "limited conflict + sustained game" for a long time.

Institutions generally believe that if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz persists, international oil prices and fuel prices will remain high, not only exacerbating risk aversion in global markets but also potentially further pushing up US domestic inflation, exerting continuous pressure on Trump's campaign and the Republican Party's midterm election prospects.