Trump caught in Iran conflict dilemma: ceasefire setback again, midterm elections and inflation pressures heating up simultaneously.

BlockBeats News, July 9 – As a new round of military conflict erupts between the US and Iran, Trump’s attempt to extricate himself from the Iran conflict has once again been thwarted. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of a shaky ceasefire agreement and ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is facing triple pressure from diplomacy, energy, and elections. The US had previously reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and Iran has launched retaliatory strikes against US military bases. The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the core trigger for the escalation of the conflict.

Market participants point out that with only months to go before the US midterm elections, rising energy prices are fueling inflationary pressure in the US and becoming a significant political risk for Trump. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 34%, returning to the low point of his second term. Although Trump still says the conflict will "end soon," many analysts believe that he can neither force Iran to make concessions through military action nor achieve a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations. The future situation is likely to remain in a state of "limited conflict plus ongoing confrontation" for an extended period.

Institutions generally believe that if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz persists, international oil and fuel prices will remain high. This will not only exacerbate risk aversion in the global market but may also further push up US domestic inflation, putting sustained pressure on Trump’s campaign and the Republican Party’s prospects in the midterm elections.