Mr. Berg's Analysis: From a Profit/Loss Perspective, Why Are We Not Far from the Bear Market Bottom?

Mr. Berg, through his long-established veteran indicator RUP (Relative Unrealized Profit), points out that for every major Bitcoin super-bottom since 2012, the corresponding RUP values have mostly fallen within the 0.30 to 0.38 range. And during this year’s early-June sell-off when BTC broke below 60K, RUP hit a low of approximately 0.351, which has officially entered the “bottom zone from the RUP perspective,” meaning we may truly be just one mile away from the bear-market bottom. This article is a market analysis published by Mr. Berg on X, compiled by Dongquandongqu as a cooperative feature column for the Dynamic Zone Academy Project.
(Previous context: Mr. Berg Analysis》When loss-makers begin to hoard, it is a signal of BTC cycle bottom)
(Background supplement: Mr. Berg Analysis》BTC bear market progress is in the final mile)

Table of Contents

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• What is RUP? Mr. Berg’s veteran-level tool
• Two key actions, and the basis is always RUP
• The RUP of every historical super-bottom all falls between 0.30～0.38

Key Takeaways

• RUP (Relative Unrealized Profit) is Mr. Berg’s veteran-level cycle indicator. The clear-out liquidation in early 2025 and the BTC shorting conducted from July to October 2025 were both based on it as the main reference.
• Since 2012, for every Bitcoin super-bottom, the RUP value has mostly been in the 0.30 to 0.38 range.
• In early June this year, when BTC broke below 60K, RUP’s low reached approximately 0.351, entering the “bottom zone from the RUP perspective.”

After the first appearance of the PSIP < 50% signal, today I’m going to discuss with everyone again from a “profit-and-loss” perspective, explaining that “perhaps we really only have one mile left to the bear-market bottom.”

What is RUP? Mr. Berg’s veteran-level tool

The indicator in the accompanying image is Mr. Berg’s veteran-level tool since the beginning of his work: RUP. RUP stands for “Relative Unrealized Profit,” translated as “Relative Unrealized Profit.” It is mainly used to measure the overall profitability condition of the market, and it is a highly accurate cyclical indicator.

Two key actions—both are based on RUP

I believe old friends of Mr. Berg already know: whether it was the clear-out liquidation with a “known plan” in early 2025, or the shorting of BTC from 2025 July to 2025 October, the main basis for both actions is inseparable from the powerful signal of “RUP.”

And today, I plan to use the RUP perspective again, to explain and cross-check with everyone why “we are not far from the bear-market bottom.”

The RUP of every historical super-bottom all falls between 0.30～0.38

BTC Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator—each historical super-bottom is marked on the chart.｜Chart source: Mr. Berg / Glassnode

As shown in the figure: I have marked the RUP corresponding to every historical Bitcoin super-bottom since 2012. Although each value differs slightly, the overall range generally lands around “0.30～0.38.” And during the sell-off in early June when BTC broke below 60K, RUP’s low reached approximately 0.351, which basically means we have officially entered the “bottom zone from the RUP perspective.”

> Finally, as always: Stay patient, keep discipline, and dawn will come.

Common Questions

What is RUP (Relative Unrealized Profit)?

RUP stands for Relative Unrealized Profit, translated as “Relative Unrealized Profit.” It is used to measure the overall profitability condition of the market, and is a highly accurate cyclical indicator. The lower the value, the less overall unrealized profit the market has on its books, and the closer it is to the cyclical bottom.

How far is BTC from the bear-market bottom according to RUP?

Mr. Berg points out that historically, for every super-bottom, RUP is roughly around 0.30 to 0.38. When BTC broke below 60K in early June, RUP’s low reached approximately 0.351, having already entered the bottom zone—meaning we may “only be one mile away” from the bear-market bottom.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.